What We Learned Week 2 of College Football

What We Learned Week 2 of College Football

The first thing we learned is that Alabama is vulnerable to an extremely physical offensive line. Texas was impressive up front in Austin. 

Alabama was favored by 21 points and did not even score 21 points in their fortuitous 20-19 win.

SEC teams in Week 2 weren't all that good for college football betting players. SEC favorites went 3-3 straight up (SU) and 2-4 against the spread (ATS). The underdogs went 1-3 SU and ATS. 

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Top SEC Teams Tumble

There were two SEC matchups played in Week 2 with Kentucky going to The Swamp to beat the Florida Gators 26-16 as six-point underdogs. Arkansas beat South Carolina at home 44-30 as the Gamecocks failed to cover the spread as nine-point underdogs.

After posting a 14-1 SU record and 10-5 ATS mark in Week 1, SEC teams went 7-5 and 5-7 ATS overall last week. 

SEC teams taking on a non-conference foe went 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS, but one of those losses was a major one. Texas A&M went in as an 18-point favorite and lost at home to Appalachian State 17-14. How Does a Top 10 team react to a home loss to an unranked opponent?

Teams that were favored by more points than they scored, were favored by 17.5 to 27.5 points, and lost the game in the previous week, have a 37-37 SU record and 30-42-1 ATS record for 41% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. 

Texas A&M hosts the Miami Hurricanes and are installed as 5.5-point favorites with a posted total of 45 points. 

Teams that were ranked in the Top 10 and lost at home installed as 17.5 or greater favorites and failed to score as many points as they were favored are 7-1 SU, but just 4-4 ATS. 

So, I need to do a lot more research, but perhaps Texas A&M will be a moneyline wager in Week 3.

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How Does a Top 10 Team React to an Escape Road Win?

Alabama dropped only one spot despite a 20-19 win as a huge double-digit favorite. Top 10 teams that were favorites of 17.5 or more points and failed to score more points than they were favored by and still managed to win that game on the road are 18-1 SU, but just 10-9 ATS. 

Alabama plays host to a vastly overmatched Louisiana-Monroe team and is favored by 49 points.

Then there is Notre Dame.

Last year there were 13 teams ranked in the final edition of the AP Poll that were not in the preseason AP poll. Just last week we had three teams drop out of the current week’s AP poll that were preseason ranked in the Top 10. They are the Oregon Ducks, the Wisconsin Badgers, and the Houston Cougars.

Notre Dame lost to Marshall, as the Thundering Herd took control of the game with better fundamentals and far more physicality. So, the Irish have a new head coach that is already on the hot seat to be fired after just two games.

I am looking at the Notre Dame game this week when it hosts a Pac-12 foe California. The Fighting Irish are a 10-point favorite with a 41-point total. 

I am thinking Under as a best bet. The reason is in the numbers. Betting the Under with a home double-digit favorite that has lost their two previous games SU and were ranked in the Top 10 two games before the current game, has seen the Under produce a 21-11 record, good for 65.6% winning bets over the last 15 seasons.

Best Bet of the Week So Far

Coaches will focus the majority of their time teaching defensive fundamentals following a humiliating loss to an inferior opponent. 

The fact that the total is only 40.5 points implies a 25-15 Notre Dame win. My predictive models project that Notre Dame will allow 13 or fewer points to California. 

In past games when they have allowed 13 or fewer points and favored by double digits has seen the Under earn a near-perfect 15-1-1 for 94% winning bets.

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