NFL Picks: Can Pittsburgh Right the Ship as it Goes to Philadelphia?

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NFL Picks: Can Pittsburgh Right the Ship as it Goes to Philadelphia?
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Here is the Week 8 NFL bets that I will take to the window.  

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles 

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Line: Eagles –10.5 | Total: 43.5 points 

I am betting on the Under 43.5 points as offered at BetMGM.

The  Eagles (6-0 straight up, 4-2 against the spread, 3-3 Over-Under) come off their bye week and host the state-rival Steelers (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS, 2-5 Over-Under).

The Steelers rank second-to-last in the league with a scoring average of 15.3 points per game. The Eagles have the fourth-best scoring defense, allowing 17.5 points. 

The Steelers struggle to run the ball, averaging 3.7 yards per rush and 88 yards per game. The Eagles' defensive front is one of the best in the league with opponents averaging the second-fewest rushing attempts (22). 

Philadelphia ranks fifth, averaging 395 total offensive yards, and should have no problem moving the ball against a Steelers defense ranking 28 and allowing 394 total yards per game. The Eagles rank fourth with a 15.71 yards-per-point ratio facing a Steelers defensive unit posting an 18.47 yards per point allowed to rank 20. 

The Steelers' offense ranks dead last with a 34.46 yards-per-point ratio and the Eagles' defense ranks seventh, posting a 23.53 yards per point allowed.  

Situational Trends and Angles 

  • The Steelers are 23-11 Under (68%) when on the road and facing a team that is completing 61% or more of their pass attempts over the past five seasons.
  • The Steelers are 12-1-2 Under (92%) in Weeks 5 through 9 of the past five seasons.
  • The Eagles are 9-5 Under (64%) in Weeks 5 through 9 of the past five seasons.

Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills 

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC 

Line: Bills -11 | Total: 47.5 points 

I am betting on the Packers plus the points at BetMGM. 

The Packers (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS, 3-4 Over-Under) will do everything possible to end a three-game losing skid as they take on the Bills (5-1, 4-1-1 ATS, 1-5 over-Under), arguably the best team in the NFL. 

Green Bay is in danger of missing the playoffs the way it is playing now. Over their first three games, the Packers averaged 395 total yards and went 3-1. Since the start of the current three-game losing streak, that average has dropped to 287 yards. 

More alarming is that they lost the first two games at home to the New York Giants and the New York Jets and then to the downtrodden Washington Commanders.  

Before the season, Buffalo was s 4-point favorite. Now the Bills are a –11 favorite. Whenever the line has moved by 6 or more points, a contrarian betting opportunity is active and that would be to bet on the Packers. 

This type of bet returned 67% ATS last season.

Situational Trends and Angles 

The following situational trends and angles support a betting opportunity on Green Bay plus the points. This specific betting algorithm has earned a 33-18-4 against the spread mark good for 65% winning bets over the past five seasons. The requirements are to: 

  • Bet on the underdogs.
  • The underdog is facing a formidable team, outgaining opponents by .75 or more yards per play.
  • The favorite is coming off three consecutive games of gaining 400 or more total yards in each game.

Other Games I like Against the Spread 

  1. Bet on the Commanders +3 over the Colts.
  2. Bet the 49ers -1.5 over the Rams.

Games I like For Live Betting 

  1. Steelers at Eagles, take the Under.
  • The strategy is to bet 50% on the Under full-game preflop and then look to add 25% more at 45.5 and 25% more at 49.5 during the first half only.

Moneyline Bet Picks 

  1. Bet the Seahawks -150 over the Giants.
  2. Bet the Packers +435 over the Bills.

Over-Under Bet Picks 

  1. Over Cardinals vs Vikings 49 points -110
  2. Over Titans vs Texans 40.5  points  -110
  3. Over 49ers vs Rams 42.5 points -110

Prop Bet Picks

Sportsbook Odds Prop Bet
BetRivers -120 Cowboys’ Dak Prescott Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
BetRivers +700 Cowboys’ CeeDee Lamb 2+ touchdowns
BetMGM -115 Eagles’ Jalen Hurts Over 281.5 passing + rushing yards
FanDuel +270 49ers’ Christian McCaffrey to score a first half TD
Caesars -145 Bills’ Gabe Davis Over 3.5 receptions
BetMGM -115 Giants’ Saquon Barkley Over 81.5 rushing yards

Player prop bets are 43-27 for 61% winning bets, making $1,030 per $50 bet. 

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