Best Statistically-Based Bets to Make on Premier League Games this Weekend

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Best Statistically-Based Bets to Make on Premier League Games this Weekend
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The English Premier League is in the stretch run and we’ll give you betting advice as the season winds down.

We’ve used the data from around the Premier League and examined the latest odds for the upcoming games to see what the most statistically-backed outcomes are set to be for the weekend matches.

Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur to See Over 2.5 Goals in the Game: (59.4%)

Liverpool will welcome Tottenham Hotspur to Anfield this Saturday in a crucial battle for the top four and the Premier League title. 

The Reds come into this must-win battle with 55.6% of their games seeing over 2.5 goals, while the north London outfit boast a percentage of 59.2% of games seeing over 2.5 goals.

With Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane, Diogo Jota, Harry Kane, and Son Heung-min all expected in the starting XIs, there will be 83 league goals among them.

When these two last met in the league, it ended with a 2-2 score. Now, with even more to play for, over 2.5 goals seems almost certain.

Both Man United and Brighton to Score and the Game to Finish a Tie (25.6%)

It’s not often teams play out almost an entire season with the odds of a draw and both team scoring being relatively high, but with Manchester United and Brighton & Hove Albion struggling, it looks as if this is set to happen again.

At a percentage of 25.6% of their combined games this season, the Seagulls have seen a league-high 14 draws in the season. United has drawn 10 times, and with Brighton's poor defensive record and United scoring a goal for almost every one it concedes, all signs point to a score draw at the AMEX. 

Over 3.5 Goals in Leicester vs. Everton (38.5%)

It’s rare that we get to this stage of the Premier League season and see two sides consistently witness over 3.5 goals in their games. However, Leicester City and Everton have played a combined 66 games this campaign, and within those fixtures, 38.5% of the games have seen over 3.5 goals. 

The Foxes have had about as topsy-turvy of a season as it gets. They have flirted with the European spots, and even dropping as low as 15th at times in the table. They have now let in 54 league goals and scored 48, while Everton sits with one of the worst defensive records in the league with 55 conceded, and have scored only 35.

It’s an absolute must-win for the Toffees as well, and anything but three points could all but spell the end of their 30-year stay in the Premier League. 

For Leicester, it’s merely a form builder, with its chances at finishing in the Europa Conference League spot mathematically possible, but very unlikely. As a result, goals are expected once more.

Liverpool’s Diogo Jota to Score First Against Spurs (17.5%)

In another excellent season for Diogo Jota, he will be in search of goal number 16 this Premier League season as his side meets Spurs. 

The forward has netted 10 goals as the first one in the match from the 57 games he has played so far and this puts him at a percentage of 17.5% in scoring the first goal.

He also scored against Spurs in the last clash between these two in the league in December, and as he came off in the second half in the midweek game against Villarreal, he should start once more here.

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Grant McQuillan

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