Argentina Election Odds: Bookmakers Back Massa But Milei Leads Polls
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Betting sites are sticking by Sergio Massa to win the Argentina presidential election despite rival Javier Milei leading in the polls.
Argentina is heading to a monumental second round of voting for its next president on November 19, with finance minister Massa up against the populist firebrand Milei for control of the country’s political future.
The South American nation has been gripped by political chaos ever since inflation began spiralling during the Covid-19 pandemic.
The rate of inflation has since dropped from a peak of 121%, but the ruling UP alliance is by no means guaranteed to remain in power.
Massa and Milei are the final two in a presidential contest that has raged for months.
In October, Milei’s La Libertad Avanza coalition claimed the most votes in the presidential primaries (30%) and fared well in the legislative election too.
However, a one-on-one contest against the centre-left Massa is by no means a foregone conclusion for Milei, the outsider who has shot to fame across the country.
UK bookmakers don’t quite know what to do about this market, and it’s this uncertainty that punters are seeking to exploit.
Argentina Election Candidates
Argentina Presidential Betting
Political betting sites have flipped-flopped on this market for months. They initially placed centre-right JxC candidate Patricia Bullrich as the leader to be the next president, on the assumption that Argentina would vote for the direct opposition to the current government.
However, Massa was neck-and-neck with Bullrich until Milei emerged as a viable third option.
The populist has campaigned on an anti-government agenda and his policies - which includes scrapping the peso in favour of the US dollar, slashing government spending, and relaxing gun control laws - have caught the imagination of many Argentines.
Milei was favourite to be the next Argentina president on the eve of the first vote in October. He didn’t secure the majority required and so is now in a run-off against Massa.
Bookmakers immediately reinstalled Massa as favourite to win the second presidential vote, assuming that centrists - both left and right - would back him over Milei.
However, the polls have skewed in a totally different direction to the odds after the defeated Bullrich came out in support of Milei.
Right now, William Hill have Massa at 8/11 to win the Argentina presidential election, odds that carry a 57.9% probability.
Milei is priced at Evens (50%), which is a drop from 21/20 in the immediate aftermath of the first round.
The polls look totally different. Here, Atlas Intel data shows Milei has a 3.8-point lead and is polling at nearly 50%.
On top of this, 78% of all bets on this market are also going on Milei. Punters evidently reckon the polls are going to be proven right on election night.
What all this means is bookmakers are continuing to back Massa despite the surge in support for Milei. Are they right to do so? It’s almost impossible to know.
Who Will Be Argentina President?
All the focus now is on where Bullrich’s supporters will go, now she is out of the contest. Her 6,263,308 votes for the Together for Change coalition were 1.6m shy of Milei.
Had Bullrich backed the government after her defeat then Massa would almost certainly be heading to victory this November.
But instead, she’s put her support behind Milei, claiming: “For Argentina to move forward it needs root-and-branch reform.”
Milei has thrived as the protest option and is vowing to deliver the sort of change many feel is needed.
The draw of Milei comes from both the right and left. Even Peronists are looking at him as a viable option for president, due to the situation the current government is in.
How Argentina Election Works
Turnout for the primary round of voting for the presidential election was fairly high. Seventy six percent of the 35.4m voters in Argentina cast their ballots, with 66% backing either Massa or Milei.
The Argentina presidential election works in a multi-round format which allows for a candidate to win in the first round.
In August there was a primary round that cut the number of candidates down from 27 to five.
October’s election could have produced a winner had anyone secured 45% of the vote, or if they got 40% of the vote and were 10 points ahead of the next candidate.
This didn’t happen. Massa was nine points off making the 45% mark and is facing a battle against Milei to surpass 50% next time out.
Indeed, the final vote for Argentina’s next president is a simple head-to-head where the victor takes it all and betting apps are leaning towards a Milei victory at present.
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