Rhys Williams' Daily Horse Racing Tips: 3 Selections For Thursday
Rhys Williams continues to share his racing expertise with The Panel.
Rhys has been a racing analyst for over 10 years, working for At The Races and most recently as a tipster for Betfair where his tipping column had a 31% ROI over four and a half years.
He often focuses away from the front end of the market, finding angles that aren't evident to most.
He has returned a profit of 12.73 points and his profit and loss record for the year stands at -30.77 points from 43.5 points staked.
Here are Rhys' tips for Thursday, using the most up-to-date odds from the best horse racing betting sites and check out Rhys' early Cheltenham Festival selections.
Build your daily yard of horses in our new 'Stables Stars' fantasy game below to be in with a chance of winning £100, £50 or £25.
Play Stable Stars Here
14:58 Thurles: Long Road - 0.5pt Win @ 40/1
The rain forecast for Thurles could turn the ground even more testing and I think that gives Long Road a better chance than his big price suggests in this handicap chase.
He’s unseated on his last two starts, but prior to that he put up two performances in the Irish pointing field that suggest he could be better than a mark of 88.
He finished behind Hearts And Spades, who has won all five starts since, in the first of those and then Long Road won a maiden comfortably at Tinahely.
His jumping is a concern as he still jumps right on right-handed tracks and maybe this company is a bit too strong for him.
However, I think Long Road has more ability than his rating of 88 and can run better than his price suggests if able to put it all together.
Any 25/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 1: 14:58 Thurles - Long Road - 0.5pt Win
16:25 Haydock: Land Of Punt - 1pt Win @ 7/2
Land Of Punt has yet to live up to the expectations that were on him before his debut, but now that he’s up in trip and with headgear on, I’m hopeful that his ability will now start to come out under rules.
Despite showing his inexperience, he was set to win easily on his point debut, when he jumped the last fence fine but crumpled on landing and came down.
He was very well backed for his rules debut at Chepstow, but ran disappointingly and finished well beaten.
He showed more next time at Hereford when finishing fifth, despite jumping left throughout and built on that when staying on at Plumpton to finish third over an inadequate test of stamina.
I think the step up in trip is likely to bring improvement from Land Of Punt and the cheekpieces could help him switch on better through the first half of the race.
His full ability is likely to come out over fences further down the line, but I’m hopeful that he can get off the mark here and any 11/4 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 2: 16:25 Haydock - Land Of Punt - 1pt Win
Read Up On The Latest horse racing betting sites
Why Not Check Out Our Dedicated Fast Racing Results Page
17:13 Thurles: Bon Bon Fizz - 0.5pt Win @ 66/1
Bon Bon Fizz has failed to complete in both starts, but he showed plenty of promise on his hurdling debut at this track last time.
Having raced a bit further back than midfield for much of the race, he made headway going well to be just behind the leading group turning into the home straight.
Shaken up after two out, he looked a bit green under pressure, but was running on and about to go into fourth when coming down at the last.
That looked a decent maiden hurdle and the third won a novice hurdle on Tuesday, while the well held fifth was given a rating of 105.
This is quite a strong bumper and maybe today will be about getting Bon Bon Fizz’s confidence restored.
However, the ability he showed last time suggests he has more of a chance than his price suggests and any 25/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Selection 3: 17:13 Thurles - Bon Bon Fizz - 0.5pt Win
All odds correct at time of publish.
Early Cheltenham Selections:
Turners Novices' Hurdle: Glance At Midnight - 0.5pt Win @ 100/1 (NRMB)
Maybe there’s too little time between now and the second day of the Cheltenham Festival for a trainer switch to have any significant impact, but it was a bit surprising to see no market reaction to Glance At Midnight joining Dan Skelton after being bought for £245,000 in the GoffsGo February Sale last week.
Glance At Midnight has already looked a promising novice hurdler this season, gradually improving as the season has progressed and with a step up in trip last time in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon.
Despite the ground looking to be softer than ideal for him and that he was away from what was likely the best ground on the outside, he ran very well to finish second to Act Of Innocence and, perhaps notably given the purchase, ahead of the Skelton-trained Sinnatra.
Given that he showed a tendency to go slightly to his left at some of the hurdles at Huntingdon, I think the return to a left-handed track at Cheltenham will help Glance At Midnight and the slightly stiffer test of stamina may help his cause too.
If this was a market on a run-of-the-mill contest I expect the market would factor in a good deal of improvement for a horse moving from Andrew Martin to Dan Skelton so that Glance At Midnight is still available at 100/1 with the NRMB concession in place is surprising to me.
Of course it may be that they will want to give him more time to settle in at the new yard so Aintree could end up being his spring target instead but the NRMB concession takes care of that concern and if he does turn up at Cheltenham I think he’s capable of running well at a big price.
Any 33/1 or bigger NRMB appeals.
Rhys' Cheltenham Festival Selection: Turners Novices' Hurdles - Glance At Midnight - 0.5pt Win
Festival Hunters Chase: Linelee King 0.5pt Win @ 50/1 (NRMB)
Irish trained runners dominate the market for the race formerly known as the Foxhunter and rightly so given the best pointer in Britain isn’t entered and arguably the most talented hunter chaser is a doubt over this trip. However, there is one British entrant who looks overpriced with the non runner money back concession.
Aintree has been stated as the more likely target for Linelee King but if he does line up here I think he has the talent to run better than his big price suggests. He’s always had a good level of ability but has been very fragile in recent years and has only had four runs since the start of the 2022/23 season.
I thought he won with plenty in hand at Southwell on his hunter chase debut which was his first start after a 467-day absence. He had some issues between that run and Cartmel and he travelled all over his rivals at Cartmel but Autonomous Cloud battled back to beat him.
In an interview this season, James King described him as “probably the fattest horse I’ve ever ridden in a race” when referring to the Cartmel race so it was a fair effort in the circumstances for Linelee King to run as well as he did.
He turned up at Revesby Park for his first start of the current pointing season and beat Music Drive in comfortable fashion having been given a patient ride. If he does run at Cheltenham, I think he has the class to be competitive and his strong travelling nature should be suited to this race.
His jumping is a bit of a concern, as is his fragility, but I think the market has overreacted to the Cartmel defeat and undervalued the defeat of a horse who is currently 12/1 on his seasonal debut and the NRMB concession covers the concern that he could turn up at Aintree instead. Any 25/1 NRMB appeals.
Rhys' Cheltenham Festival Selection: Hunters Chase - Linelee King - 0.5pt Win (NRMB)
Festival Hunters Chase: Ryehill 0.5pt Win @ 66/1
While the Irish control the front of the market, I think one of their potential challengers at a huge price is currently being overlooked in the market.
Ryehill was sent off at a single-figure price for this race last season but he got a long way behind early on and could only finish strongly into tenth place. It’s easy to forgive his bad run at Fairyhouse after that as he was going the wrong way round for him and he’s bounced back this season.
He ran respectably in defeat behind Wrappedupinmay on his seasonal debut at Dromahane, a track that wouldn’t have been ideal for this strong stayer. He was beaten just under ten lengths at Naas by Panda Boy but Ryehill never looked to be travelling and made some bad mistakes.
Given that isn’t the first time that he’s not travelled from an early stage, I’m hoping they might put headgear on him at Cheltenham to try to sharpen him up and hopefully this year he won’t be detached at the back of the field on the first circuit.
Given this is the only realistic hunter chase option for him at any of the big festivals due to him needing a good test of stamina and a left-handed track, I don’t see any need for the NRMB concession when backing him so the bigger prices with the firms who are offering separate normal antepost markets are more appealing. Any 33/1 or bigger appeals.
Rhys' Cheltenham Festival Selection: Hunters Chase - Ryehill - 0.5pt Win
All odds correct at time of publish.
If you are following the latest horse racing tips, sign up at one of the best betting sites where you'll find exclusive offers.
You’ll find plenty of betting markets on horse racing today, along with a wide variety of other sports, at these trusted online betting sites, while you might even grab some free bets.
Also, follow our resident tipster James Boyle for his very latest tips and expert analysis ahead of the day's meetings in the UK, Ireland and around the world.
Check Out The Rest Of Our Racing Content:
