A Look Ahead To The North Carolina Mobile Sports Betting Market
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It took a multi-year effort, but North Carolina has joined the ranks of states with legal statewide mobile sports betting. The expected launch of mobile betting is in early 2024.
The addition of the Tarheel State is a major victory for the U.S. market, as North Carolina has all the ingredients to be a Top 5 market in the short term and a Top 10 market in the long term.
Before diving into North Carolina’s mobile sports betting potential, let’s walk through how the state got to this point.
North Carolina’s Foray into Retail Betting
North Carolina was one of the first states to legalize sports betting following the repeal of PASPA.
A year after the PASPA repeal, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper signed legislation legalizing sports betting, but in a very limited fashion. North Carolina’s 2019 law legalized retail betting at tribal casinos in far-flung areas of the state.
It would take two years for these retail sportsbooks to open, and because of their out-of-the-way locations, they barely moved the needle.
- Harrah’s Cherokee Casino Resort in Cherokee, NC
- Harrah’s Cherokee Valley River Casino & Hotel in Murphy, NC
- Catawba Two Kings Casino in Kings Mountain, NC
Retail betting was merely the state’s first salvo, as even before the first retail books opened on March 18, 2021, the legislature was already exploring mobile betting.
A Near-Miss in 2021-2022
North Carolina gave mobile betting the old college try during the 2021-22 legislative session.
First filed in April 2021, SB 688 was passed in 26-19 vote in August.
The bill sat relatively untouched for 10 months in the House of Representatives. In June 2022, the House finally took action, but the measure hit a roadblock on second reading, failing to move forward by a 52-49 vote.
Smooth Sailing in 2023
In 2023, there was some legislative turnover from the November 2022 elections. Still, the same impediments were expected to present in the Tarheel State, and a close vote, hopefully in favor of legalization, was anticipated.
Any anxiety over a close vote was quickly alleviated when the House, where the 2022 effort met its fate, easily passed a mobile sports betting bill, HB 347, without anything approaching a contentious debate. The final vote was 64-45.
The agita returned when the mobile betting bill sat in the Senate for a couple of months, but once it began moving, it was all downhill, with the Senate making some minor modifications to the bill and passing it in a 37-11 vote.
Upon its return to the House, there were some short-lived efforts to expand the scope, but soon thereafter, the House passed the bill unchanged in a 69-44 vote.
Sizing Up the North Carolina Market
Like all sports betting states, four factors will play a role in the overall success of the North Carolina online sports betting market:
- Market structure
- Geography
- Economic Conditions
- Sports and Gambling Culture
Market Structure
There are a few things states can do when they structure their law that can set up their sports betting industry for success or headaches. North Carolina’s mobile betting bill skews toward success.
The North Carolina mobile betting industry:
- Is an open market with more than a dozen potential operators.
- Has Moderate operator burdens with an 18% tax rate.
- Doesn’t restrict popular forms of betting, such as wagering on in-state colleges.
Geography
The Tarheel State has two geographic features working in its favor. It’s the ninth most populous state in the country at 10.2 million and shares a lengthy border with non-sports betting South Carolina and Georgia.
Two major population centers, Greenville, SC and Atlanta, GA, are an hour and two-hour drive from the North Carolina border, respectively.
Economic Conditions
A median household income of $62,891 ranks North Carolina 37th out of 50 states. However, the state’s cost of living boosts its disposable income per adult, which sits at $68,706.
For comparison, Virginia’s median income ($80,268) is 128% of North Carolina, but its disposable income ($79,105) is only 115%, per a Spectrum Gaming report.
Sports and Gambling Culture
North Carolina is neither pro nor anti-gambling, but it does possess a strong sports culture with professional teams in three of the four major sports and top-tier college athletic programs.
- Carolina Hurricanes – NHL
- Carolina Panthers – NFL
- Charlotte Hornets – NBA
- North Carolina FC – MLS
- University of North Carolina – NCAA
- North Carolina State University – NCAA
- Duke University – NCAA
- Wake Forest University – NCAA
Can North Carolina Generate $100 Million for the State?
The best comparisons for North Carolina are Michigan and Virginia.
The two markets have per adult sports betting handle of $650 and $800 and per adult sports betting win of $56 and $76, per the Spectrum Gaming report.
With an adult population of 7.5 million, the potential annual revenue for North Carolina mobile betting is as follows:
- Bear = $420 million
- Baseline = $495 million
- Bull = $570 million
With a tax rate of 18%, North Carolina can expect tax revenue between $75 million and $102 million.
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