Bet365 Bonus Code: Bet $1 Get $200 for Best MLB Bets Yankees vs. Mets on Wednesday

Article By Matthew Crist

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Last Updated: Jun 14^th, 2023

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Get ready for an action-packed night of baseball and plenty of betting opportunities in the MLB with the likes of the Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox and Chicago just some of the teams taking to the field tonight.

But the pick of the games on Wednesday surely has to be the "Subway Series" as the New York Mets face the New York Yankees in the Bronx with Gerrit Cole taking on Justin Verlander in what could be one of the more fascinating pitching duels of the season.

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• Game Day: Wednesday, June 14, 2023
• Game Time: 7:10 PM ET
• TV Channel: MLBTV
• Location: Yankee Stadium, NY
   

Both of these teams might be without their best hitter, but will have their ace on the mound. So which New York team has the advantage?

Yankees Hopes Rest on Cole

It's quite astonishing that Gerrit Cole has yet to win a Cy Young Award despite consistently being in the top five in voting five times. Over the past five seasons, Cole has maintained an ERA of 3.50 or lower, and he appears to be heading towards achieving the same feat for the sixth season in a row.

As the ace of the Yankees, Cole currently boasts a record of 7-1 with an ERA of 2.84, continuing to showcase his exceptional fastball that places him among the game's elite pitchers. However, his slider and curveball haven't been as dominant as in previous seasons, and there have been a few aspects of Cole's performance that seem slightly off.

Notably, Cole's 4.01 expected ERA (xERA) is the second highest of his career. While he has always excelled at generating strikeouts, his 25.8% strikeout rate this season is significantly lower than the impressive 32.4% mark he achieved last year, placing him outside of the top third of pitchers in the league.

The Yankees' offense has experienced inconsistent performances throughout the early months of the season, currently ranking 23rd in weighted on-base average (wOBA). Furthermore, the team faced a setback when Aaron Judge landed on the Injured List. However, as demonstrated on Tuesday, the Yankees proved their ability to score even in Judge's absence, with Giancarlo Stanton and DJ LeMahieu hitting home runs, and Anthony Volpe making a significant contribution to the game. 

Verlander's Early Season Struggles Continue 

The start of the season hasn't gone as expected for the Mets since they signed Justin Verlander, a three-time Cy Young Award winner, during the offseason. Unfortunately, Verlander began the year on the Injured List and has only been able to make seven starts so far. In contrast to his remarkable 1.75 ERA from the previous season, he has struggled with a 4.85 ERA since joining the Mets.

One of Verlander's main challenges this season has been the number of home runs he has allowed. In just seven games, he has given up seven home runs, and his hard-hit rate and average exit velocity rank in the bottom 25% of the league. Similar to Cole, his strikeout rate has significantly dropped, currently standing at a mere 19.9% compared to last season's impressive 27.8% mark.

Not only is Verlander struggling to generate swings and misses, but when hitters do make contact, it often results in hard-hit balls. His fastball, in particular, has been susceptible to opposing hitters, with a .378 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). Additionally, his walk rate has increased, and it seems like everything is going wrong for him at the moment.

The Mets' offense has also been below average, further complicating matters. Moreover, they are currently without Pete Alonso. Despite the loss on Tuesday, the Mets managed to score six runs and have seen some positive performances from other players, notably Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Alvarez.

Yankees vs. Mets: Pick and Predictions

40-year-old Justin Verlander is currently enduring one of the most challenging seasons of his career. His strikeout rate has hit an all-time low, and he is struggling with either issuing walks or giving up hard-hit balls.

As for Gerrit Cole, his performance has been progressively declining month by month. He began with a 3.28 expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) in April, followed by a 4.33 xFIP in May, and he currently holds a 5.06 xFIP after two starts in June.

In their last four outings combined, these two pitchers have allowed a total of 25 runs.

Expect the momentum gained by the offenses to continue, particularly against pitchers who are currently overvalued due to their past elite reputations but are struggling in their current form.

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Matthew Crist

Last Updated:   Jun 14^th, 2023

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