MLB Double Play: Betting Advice on National and American League Games, April 20

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MLB Double Play: Betting Advice on National and American League Games, April 20
© USA Today

Throughout the season, we will give you MLB betting advice for a National League and American League game each day and throw in a few quick pitches for prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

National League

St. Louis Cardinals +120 vs. Miami Marlins -140

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Miami Marlins 5-1 in the series opener of this three-game series.

The Marlins will send their ace Sandy Alcantara to the hill, who has never earned the win in five career starts against the Cardinals. He sports an 0-3 record in those five starts with a stellar 1.40 ERA and a 1.086 WHIP.

The last start he made against the Cardinals ended in a loss despite throwing 8 ⅓ innings, allowing one unearned run on six hits with one walk and seven strikeouts.

The Cardinals are expected to counter with Miles Mikolas. He is 3-1 in five career starts against the Marlins with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.100 WHIP. However, he has not faced the Marlines since last June.

Trends and Analysis Are Revealing

  • The Cardinals are 27-21 Over-Under following a road win in which they allowed 1 or no runs and now playing this game also on the road.
  • The Cardinals are 12-1 coming off a road series-opening win allowing no more than one run.

I like the Cardinals +120 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

American League

Toronto Blue Jays -135 vs. Boston Red Sox +110

Two starting pitchers focused on improving on their first starts when the Toronto Blue Jays take on the Boston Red Sox in the second game of a three-game series at Fenway.

The Red Sox defeated the Blue Jays 2-1 in Game 1 in 47-degree game-time temperatures that felt much colder given the blustery conditions.

Nick Pavetta, from Victoria, British Columbia, will be on the bump for the Red Sox. He is 0-2 with an unenviable 9.39 ERA and a 1.826 WHIP in 7 ⅔ innings over his two starts.

Command of his pitches has been the culprit for the poor start. He has trouble hitting spots and moving the ball in and out of the strike zone.

When he misses, the pitch finds the middle of the plate and the barrel of the hitter’s bats at an alarming rate. The average exit velocity has been 98.7 MPH, up nearly 10 MPH over his career EV average of 89.1 MPH.

So far, 71% of his pitches have been classified as hard hit compared with a career average of 40.2%. Tonight’s game is critical for him and his career at the MLB level.

Fortunate for Pavetta, his opponent is also off to a horrible start. Joe Berrios is 0-0 with an 11.81 ERA and a 2.625 WHIP in 5 ⅓ innings.

His advanced pitching metrics are terrible, with an average EV of 94.5 MPH, 55% hard-hit percentage, and a 25% line drive percentage.

Berrios is 0-5 (1-6 team record) in his starts against the Red Sox with a lofty 4.43 ERA and a 1.426 WHIP.

What the Betting System Says

The following situational betting system supports the Red Sox and has produced a profitable 62-31 record using the moneyline spanning the last five seasons. The requirements are:

  • Bet on home teams with a moneyline between +125 and -125.
  • With a team, in this case Boston, coming off a game in which they had four or fewer hits.
  • And the team has a strong bullpen with a WHIP of not higher than 1.200 spanning their last 10 games.

I’m taking the Red Sox +110 as offered by BetMGM Sportsbook.

A Few Player Props I have Pizza Money for the Wednesday Card

  • The Rangers Marcus Semien to hit a home run +2130 as offered at PointsBet Sportsbook.
  • The Twins Gio Urshela to have at least two hits offered at =160 by FanDuel Sportsbook.
  • The Diamondbacks pitcher Merrill Kelly to record the win at +160 as offered at PointsBet Sportsbook.
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