Major League Baseball Betting Advice for Aug. 5
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Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for a National League and American League game each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.
American League Best Bet
Los Angeles Angels (+155) at Seattle Mariners (-190)
10:11 p.m. ET
The Los Angeles Angels have had a season that Mr. Murphy, founder of Murphy’s Law, would be proud of. Once again, the Angels found a way to lose a game in a unique manner.
They hit seven solo home runs in Thursday’s 8-7 loss to the Oakland Athletics, who own the second-worst record in MLB.
Obviously, it is rare that any MLB team hits seven home runs in a game and even more rare to lose that game.
However, the way they lost puts them into an excellent betting opportunity facing the Mariners tonight.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational trends and angles support a bet on the Angels.
- Teams off a home series finale game in which they hit six or more home runs are 11-3, for 79% wins, and are producing a 44% ROI over the past 15 seasons.
- The Mariners are 9-14, losing 14.5 on the moneyline, when favored between –150 and –200 in games played over the last two seasons.
- The Mariners’ starting pitcher Robbie Ray has a 46-60 career record. He has lost 24 units on the moneyline when facing an opponent averaging 2.75 or fewer extra-base hits per game.
I am betting the Angels to bounce back and win tonight using the moneyline, at +155 at BetMGM.
National League Best Bet
Atlanta Braves (-115) at New York Mets (-145)
7:10 p.m. ET
New York Mets have won two straight games and nine of their past 10 to increase the NL East divisional lead to 4.5 games over Atlanta.
With Thursday's win, the Mets became the fourth team in MLB to outscore their opponents by 100 or more runs on the season.
The Dodgers have outscored their opponents by 210 runs, the New York Yankees by 206 runs, and the Houston Astros by 124 runs.
The defending champion Braves are 20-games over .500 and will challenge for the East Division crown.
The Mets have a 14-13 record in the past 27 games of this series. Even on a granular level, these divisional rivals have been evenly matched.
The Braves have averaged 7.26 hits per game, 2.78 extra-base hits and have scored in 2.15 innings. The Mets have averaged 7.30 hits per game, 2.67 extra-base hits and have scored in 2.15 innings.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational betting trends and angles for this matchup.
- The Braves are 104-65, making 25 units on the moneyline, when facing a starter that allows an average of 5.5 or fewer hits per game over the past two seasons.
- The Mets are 12-28, losing 17 units on the moneyline, when facing a National League foe that is scoring an average of 4.5 or more runs per game in the past two seasons.
- The Braves are 31-11, making 18.5 units on the moneyline, following two straight losses to the same opponent over the last two seasons.
I am going to the window betting the Braves on the moneyline offered at +115 at DraftKings.
Quick Pitches
These are the player prop bets to consider on today's schedule.
- Bet the Astros' Jose Altuve to have two+ hits +165 at FanDuel.
- Bet the Rangers' Glenn Otto Under 2.5 earned runs allowed –125 at DraftKings.
- Bet the Red Sox' Kevin Plawecki to get a hit –170 at PointsBet.
- Bet the Angels' David Fletcher to score a run +185 at DraftKings.
- Bet the Phillies' J.T. Realmuto to hit a home run +380 at UniBet.
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