MLB Double Play: Betting Advice on National and American League Games
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Throughout the season, we will give you MLB betting advice for a National League and American League game each day and throw in a few quick pitches for prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.
National League Best Bet
San Diego Padres +135 vs. San Francisco Giants -145
These two National League West rivals will begin a three-game series at San Francisco, with first pitch scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET.
The Giants won 107 games and the NL West over the L.A. Dodgers last season. It will be difficult for them to replicate that feat.
The Giants took two of three games from the Miami Marlins opening weekend, but scored only one run and three runs in the past two games.
San Francisco will struggle at times to score runs and will again rely on a strong pitching staff.
The Padres lost their road opener to the Arizona Diamondbacks, but won the last three games of the four-game series and scored 15 runs in the past two.
The Padres will have a powerful offense even without star Fernando Tatis, Jr. in the lineup this season.
Expect Runs Tonight in San Francisco
Here is a solid betting system that has done well over many seasons and applies to the first 12 games of the regular season. Twelve games, in most schedules, would be the first three series of the regular season.
The system has gone 47-17 Over for 73% winning bets over the last 25 MLB seasons.
Bet the Over with road teams during the first 12 games of the regular season that finished poorly, losing nine or more of their final 12 games in the previous season and are taking on an opponent that finished strong winning 26 or more of their last 40 games in the previous season.
In 68% of these bets, it was Over the total by at least one run.
American League Best Bet
Miami Marlins +130 vs. L.A. Angels -140
The Angels lost three of four games at home to the Houston Astros and will look to bounce back against the Miami Marlins in their first Inter-League match of the season.
I see the Angels doing just that against a Miami team that flew cross country late Sunday afternoon.
The Marlins struggled at the plate in losing a series to the Giants and their offense will be below average over the course of the season.
However, Miami has tons of young talented starting and relief pitchers.
Over the past two seasons, the Marlins have gone 2-15, losing 13.5 units per unit wagered when taking on an AL team that is batting no better than .265 or no better than a .330 on-base percentage.
The Marlins are a solid 46-24 Over-Under when installed as a +100 to +150 moneyline underdog in games played over the past two seasons.
Manager Don Mattingly is 50-102 against the moneyline, losing 27 units-per unit wagered on road games following a game in which his team scored two or fewer runs.
The Marlins are just 3-17, losing 15.5 units-per-unit wagered when taking on an American League opponent in games played over the past two seasons.
Quick Pitches
These are some other bets and leans I like on today’s schedule.
- Giancarlo Stanton >= two hits, +330
- Bo Bichette >= two hits, +185
- Mike Trout to hit a home run, +185
- Darin Ruf to hit a home run, +650
Lines courtesy of PointsBet Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook.
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