MLB Picks: Can Astros Bounce Back in Game 2 of the World Series?

MLB Picks: Can Astros Bounce Back in Game 2 of the World Series?
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To get you ready for your World Series betting, here are our best prop bet picks and our game picks.

 

Prop Bet Picks for World Series Game 2

Book Odds Player Prop
Unibet -130 Phillies’ Zack Wheeler Over 4.5 strikeouts
Caesars -125 Phillies’ Zack Wheeler Over 16.5 recorded outs
DraftKings +1000 Astros’ Chas McCormick to steal a base
FanDuel +150 Phillies’ Bryce Harper to record an RBI
FanDuel +290 Phillies’ Nick Castellanos to get 2+ hits

In 204 prop bets, I have an 88-116 record, making a profit of $541 per $20 pizza-money wager or $2,705 per $100 wager, which is the season high. The results have produced a 73% return on investment (ROI) for the 2022 MLB season and playoffs. 

Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros 

Today, 8:07 p.m. ET, FOX

Minute Maid Park, Houston 

I am betting on the Phillies on the moneyline +125 at BetMGM

Here is what I penned for Game 1. “Not all my handicapping processes are based on numbers, and this one has a substantial number of intangibles founded by my 28 years of professional sports betting experience. Call it a ‘gut feel’, but I have been around sports all my life either as a player, coach, or fan and I think the Phillies have a monumental mental edge over the Astros.” 

The Phillies have a mental edge that would be a significant betting mistake to ignore in Game 2. Road teams that won Game 1 of a World Series are just 1-5 in Game 2, but do not presume that the Astros will bounce back with a guaranteed win. 

The Pitching Matchup 

During the regular season, Framber Valdez led the majors with 26 quality starts (complete six innings and allow 3 or fewer earned runs). He has made two starts in the playoffs and both have been quality starts. 

He throws heavy pitches, meaning that the pitches thrown have higher than average late-breaking downward movement that results in twice as many groundball outs than fly ball outs. For the season, he has averaged an exceptional 89 MPH exit velocity if batted balls in play, 42% of those batted balls have been hard hit, 66% have resulted in ground ball outs, and 11% have resulted in flyball outs. 

Zack Wheeler will get the ball for the Phillies. He had 20 quality starts in the regular season and has been outstanding in the playoffs, making four starts and posting a 1.78 ERA and .513 WHIP, including three walks (all hit batters) and 25 strikeouts in 25 1/3 innings. 

I give the starting pitching edge to the Phillies and their mental edge is even bigger now than it was before Game 1 

The Trends and Angles you need to know for Game 1 of the World Series 

  • The Astros are 1-7 in their last seven World Series home games.
  • The Under is 6-2-1 in the Astros' last eight home playoff games
  • The Phillies are 71-43, making 19 units on the moneyline, when facing a team that averages fewer than seven runners stranded on base.
  • For his career, Astros skipper Dusty Baker is 56-65, losing 27 units on the moneyline, in home games when facing a foe averaging 1.25 or more home runs per game.

Live In-Game Betting Strategy 

This betting strategy worked perfectly in Game 1 getting the Phillies at +750 on the moneyline. 

  • Bet 50% of your normal bet amount ‘pre-flop’ (before the game starts) on the Phillies using the moneyline.
  • If, during the first three innings, the Astros score first and not more than 3 runs in total, bet the remaining 50% using the LIVE in-game moneyline price on the Phillies.

 

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