MLB Picks for Aug. 25

MLB Picks for Aug. 25
© USA Today

Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for a National League and American League game each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

 

Up to $1,250 on Caesars + 1,000 Tier Credits + 1,000 Reward Credits
Promo Code: GAMBLINGFULL

American League Best Bet

New York Yankees –220 at Oakland A’s +190

9:40 p.m. ET

The Yankees have posted an 18-25 record, averaging a -170 favorite on the moneyline resulting in a terrible -29% return on investment (ROI) since July 1. 

They are just 5-4 on the moneyline when favored by -200 or more. So, if you had played against the Yankees in games they were a -200 or greater favorite since July 1. 

You would have made a whopping 44% ROI on your bets or $500 profit for the $100 bettor.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on Oakland in this game.

  • The Yankees are 6-12, losing 14 units on moneyline, when facing a team that strands an average of seven or fewer runners on base in the second half of this season.
  • The Yankees are 17-25, losing 21 units on the moneyline, when facing a team whose hitters strike out seven more times per game in the second half of this season.
  • The A’s are 71-38, making 42 units on the moneyline, when facing a foe averaging 1.5 or more home runs per game in the second half of each of the past 10 seasons.

I am betting the Oakland A’s on the moneyline at +190 as offered at BetMGM.

 

Bet $100, Get $5 Free Bet
Promo Code: XGDC

National League Best Bet

Colorado Rockies +370 at New York Mets -425

7:10 p.m. ET

There is no such thing as a “lock” or guaranteed winner, including this matchup that appears to be to the New York Mets' advantage with Jacob DeGrom on the hill. 

Last week, we took the Washington Nationals as +350 road underdogs against the San Diego Padres and they won back-to-back games.

So keep that in mind as we look at this Rockies/Mets game.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational betting trends and angles support a bet on the Rockies using the +1.5 run line in this matchup.

  • Favorites of -400 or more in a game with a total between 7 and 8.5 runs are 19-8, but by averaging a -432 wager has lost 15 units, resulting in a -23% ROI.
  • The Mets are 41-38, losing 29 units on the moneyline, when facing a team that has been outscored by at least 1.0 runs per game in the second half of each of the past two seasons.

I am going to the window betting the Rockies on the +1.5 run line at +165 as offered at DraftKings.

Get $500 Risk Free Bet

Quick Pitches

Here are some prop bets to consider on today’s schedule.

  1. Bet the Phillies’ starter Aaron Nola Under 1.5 earned runs allowed +125 at DraftKings.
  2. Bet the Mets’ Jacob deGrom Over 1.5 earned runs allowed +145 at BetMGM.
  3. Bet the Yankees’ Gleyber Torres to hit a home run +500 at PointsBet.

In the past 47 prop bet picks, I’ve gone 26-21, making $294 per $20 pizza-money wager or $1,470 per $100 wager.

 

×