MLB Picks for Aug. 25
Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for a National League and American League game each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.
American League Best Bet
New York Yankees –220 at Oakland A’s +190
9:40 p.m. ET
The Yankees have posted an 18-25 record, averaging a -170 favorite on the moneyline resulting in a terrible -29% return on investment (ROI) since July 1.
They are just 5-4 on the moneyline when favored by -200 or more. So, if you had played against the Yankees in games they were a -200 or greater favorite since July 1.
You would have made a whopping 44% ROI on your bets or $500 profit for the $100 bettor.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on Oakland in this game.
- The Yankees are 6-12, losing 14 units on moneyline, when facing a team that strands an average of seven or fewer runners on base in the second half of this season.
- The Yankees are 17-25, losing 21 units on the moneyline, when facing a team whose hitters strike out seven more times per game in the second half of this season.
- The A’s are 71-38, making 42 units on the moneyline, when facing a foe averaging 1.5 or more home runs per game in the second half of each of the past 10 seasons.
I am betting the Oakland A’s on the moneyline at +190 as offered at BetMGM.
National League Best Bet
Colorado Rockies +370 at New York Mets -425
7:10 p.m. ET
There is no such thing as a “lock” or guaranteed winner, including this matchup that appears to be to the New York Mets' advantage with Jacob DeGrom on the hill.
Last week, we took the Washington Nationals as +350 road underdogs against the San Diego Padres and they won back-to-back games.
So keep that in mind as we look at this Rockies/Mets game.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational betting trends and angles support a bet on the Rockies using the +1.5 run line in this matchup.
- Favorites of -400 or more in a game with a total between 7 and 8.5 runs are 19-8, but by averaging a -432 wager has lost 15 units, resulting in a -23% ROI.
- The Mets are 41-38, losing 29 units on the moneyline, when facing a team that has been outscored by at least 1.0 runs per game in the second half of each of the past two seasons.
I am going to the window betting the Rockies on the +1.5 run line at +165 as offered at DraftKings.
Here are some prop bets to consider on today’s schedule.
- Bet the Phillies’ starter Aaron Nola Under 1.5 earned runs allowed +125 at DraftKings.
- Bet the Mets’ Jacob deGrom Over 1.5 earned runs allowed +145 at BetMGM.
- Bet the Yankees’ Gleyber Torres to hit a home run +500 at PointsBet.
In the past 47 prop bet picks, I’ve gone 26-21, making $294 per $20 pizza-money wager or $1,470 per $100 wager.
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