Betting Advice and Analysis For the Folds of Honor QuickTrip 500
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After two weeks of backing Chase Briscoe as a longshot, Briscoe finally cashes in the week we left him off our card. That’s why they call it gambling.
Ross Chastain continued his fast pace by placing second at Phoenix, almost giving us our first outright win of the year, while Kevin Harvick extended his Top 10 streak at Phoenix to 18 to cash on his prop bet.
NASCAR Heads to Atlanta
Now the Cup Series heads to Atlanta Motor Speedway for Sunday’s Folds of Honor QuickTrip 500. This will be the first time NASCAR will compete on the new 1.54-mile layout which features a new surface and banking. The track’s banking increased from 24 degrees to 28 and its racing surface narrowed from 55’ to 40’. Atlanta’s changes make it the most banked intermediate track on NASCAR’s schedule.
"We looked at the Atlanta project as a chance to bring another first to our company and to our sport," said Brandon Hutchinson Atlanta Motor Speedway General Manager and Vice President. "This is a chance to recreate what racing could look like on an intermediate track … This will produce a show like no one has ever seen on an intermediate track before."
The NextGen car has brought a bit of unpredictability at each track it has visited, and the unknown of how it responds to Atlanta’s new configuration gives plenty of uncertainty on how Sunday will unfold. The betting board appears wide open, especially since we’ve already seen four different winners in four races this season. Even the drivers aren’t sure what to anticipate.
“Atlanta was already one of the fastest racetracks we went to and now it’s newly repaved, and we’re going to be running there with a superspeedway package,” Aric Almirola told the media. “It is going to be so far different than anything we have ever experienced at Atlanta that I feel like I’m going there kind of blind, like a complete rookie, because I have no idea what to expect.”
Best Bet/Longshot
Erik Jones +5000 DraftKings Sportsbook
The number of unknowns this weekend puts nearly the entire board in play, which hasn’t always been the case at Atlanta where the dominant teams have regularly won here going away. Drivers are anticipating pack racing here, which could resemble what we see at Daytona and Talladega. Kyle Busch is already predicting this race will look this way.
“It’s going to be more like a Daytona or Talladega speedway race,” he said. “You are going to see a lot of pack racing with some guys two-wide and maybe three-wide, and we’ll have to see how wide the track gets in the time we have on it.”
If it looks like a superspeedway race, Erik Jones could find himself competing for a win. He has already won at the Cup level at Daytona and was our longshot pick for this year’s Daytona 500. Jones was running in the top 10 and in contention for the win before he was taken out in a crash.
No one knows what to expect from this race, which is why I feel it’s worth taking a shot on this number at DraftKings Sportsbook on someone further down on the betting board. I can’t get behind anyone at 10/1 or any of the other favorites.
Best Prop
Ross Chastain Top 3 +700 DraftKings Sportsbook
Chastain is coming off a second-place finish at Phoenix and a third at Las Vegas after two crashes at Daytona and Fontana relegated him to 40th and 29th-place finishes. What we’ve seen from TrackHouse Racing is if it can avoid trouble, the team has some of the fastest cars this year.
Chastain at 25/1 to win is about the lowest I would go since he has nearly won the last two races. Given the speed he’s displayed so far, I like this prop at 7/1 and feel a win is coming for him soon. Doubt his past struggles at the track – average start and average finish of 24th – have any merit with this new configuration.
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