NASCAR Betting: Where Can You Find Value This Week at Atlanta?
For the first time this season, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to a track it raced earlier.
William Byron won the first event at the redesigned Atlanta Motor Speedway on March 20 in a race that resembled a superspeedway contest. There was a record 46 lead changes among 20 drivers as the superspeedway competition package on the new asphalt produced tight pack racing with plenty of side-by-side action.
“It was just as crazy as I expected,” Kyle Busch told Motorsport.com. “It literally got a facelift with a whole new track surface and layout and everything.
“Back in the spring, it was more like what we expected it to be, like a Daytona or Talladega speedway race. We saw a lot of pack racing with some guys (going) two-wide and maybe three-wide and saw how wide the track got in the time we had on it.”
With the close racing, it opens the number of drivers who could potentially win. We’re seeing pre-race odds boards like Talladega or Dayton, with 13 drivers at 20/1 or less, including eight at 12/1 or shorter.
Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney and Ross Chastain are the favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook with each at 10/1.
Best Bet
Erik Jones 40/1 DraftKings Sportsbook
You can make a strong case for any of the top superspeedway drivers that are at the top of the odds board.
Chastain (10/1) finished second in the spring race, Denny Hamlin (12/1) has always been competitive at restrictor-plate races, as has Bubba Wallace (12/1), while Byron (12/1) is the defending winner.
But for these types of races, I like to search for value further down the board, and each time I end up on Erik Jones. I bet Jones to win in April’s Talladega race, and he was leading through the tri-oval on the final lap before being involved in a crash. He was just a few seconds away from cashing a 70/1 ticket.
Jones was also competitive at Daytona this year. He led four laps and was in the top eight before he was collected in another accident with just eight laps left.
Jones wound up 14th at Atlanta and ran up front for a majority of the race. Given his recent pace at superspeedways, I’ll look to back Jones this weekend at a longer number where chaos typically ensues.
Jones’ props are also worth a look at DraftKings, where he is +450 for a top-five finish and +160 for a top 10.
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