Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors Betting Analysis and Prediction

Date IconLast Updated: Sep 18th, 2023
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Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors Betting Analysis and Prediction

The Sacramento Kings ended a seven-game losing skid with a solid win over the collapsing Brooklyn Nets 112-101 on Wednesday. As stated in yesterday’s NBA article and winning outright as 4-point underdogs .

The Nets are spiraling out of control down the Eastern Conference standings now on a five-game losing streak and must play two of the best teams in the Western Conference in the next few days: the Utah Jazz Friday and Denver Nuggets Sunday.

The Kings have no time to celebrate last night’s win with a date set to take on the Golden State Warriors tonight.

The Kings are installed as 13-point road underdogs and the total is priced at 222.5 points.

For the season, the Kings are 19-34 straight up (SU), 23-30 against the spread (ATS), and 24-28-1 Over-Under. In addition, they are 6-18 SU on the road and 12-24 SU as an underdog.

As a road underdog, the Kings are 4-15 SU, 7-12 ATS with a 10-8-1 Over-Under record. Making it worse for the Kings is that they have lost 10 straight road games priced as the underdog and covered the spread in just one of those games.

The Kings Playing On B2B Nights

The Kings are playing on back-to-back nights and, when priced as a road underdog, have gone 7-12 SU, but a solid 13-6 ATS, including a 7-11-1 Over-Under record over the past three seasons.

In the same no-rest situation as a road underdog and coming off a home game, the Kings are a decent 4-5 SU, 7-2 ATS, including a 4-4-1 Over-Under record spanning the last three seasons.

Even when facing an opponent with a win percentage of 60% and higher they have earned a 3-9 SU record but are 8-4 against the spread including a 7-4-1 Over-Under mark.

Betting the Over is a Preferred Strategy

Here is a highly profitable betting algorithm that has produced consistent winners over the past five seasons on a 78-42 Over record, good for 65% winning bets.

Bet the Over on a team with a posted total of 215 or more points that is playing on back-to-back nights and has a win percentage between 25 and 40% for the season and is playing a team with a winning record for the season.

Plus, 39-16-2 Over if our team is a double-digit underdog.

The Team Breakdowns

Over the last five games, the Kings are getting outscored by 16.2 points per game while the Warriors are outscoring their opponents by an average of 13.8 points per game.

The Kings are 9-15 SU and 13-11 ATS in their road games despite being outscored by an average of 8.7 points per game.

The Warriors are 24-4 SU and 17-9 ATS, including 10-17 over-under in their home games this season. Their home games have averaged as a 9-point favorite and they are outscoring their opponents by 13.1 points per game.

ICYDK on NBA Road Teams

Over the past three seasons, road teams that have been outscored by an average of 10 or more points per game over their last five games have earned a 93-158 SU record and a 139-11 ATS mark, good for 56%, and a 135-111 Over-Under record.

If our road warrior is playing on back-to-back nights, they have gone 16-35 SU record, 25-25-1 ATS, including a 29-20 Over-Under record for 59% winners betting the Over.

One step further with our road warrior priced as a double-digit underdog leads us to the paydirt with a solid 16-9 over-under record good for 64% winning Over bets spanning the last three seasons.

So in this game, I’m taking the Over.