Should You Bet on The Nets to Get Back in The Series Against Boston?
The NBA Playoffs are off to a quite exciting start and there are eight games this weekend, four on Saturday and four on Sunday.
- Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors, 2 p.m. ET
- Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz, 4:30 p.m. ET
- Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves, 10 p.m. ET
- Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls, 1 p.m. ET
- Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks, 7 p.m. ET
- Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans, 9:30 p.m. ET
Let’s get you ready for your NBA betting by taking a look at a couple of games on the slate.
Boston Celtics vs. Brooklyn Nets
Boston’s game plan worked to perfection in Game 2 as it took Kevin Durant out of his comfort zone and minimized his offensive production.
KD is having an atypical first-round series by his standards. He shot a miserable 9-of-24 from the field for 27%, with six turnovers in Game 1. In Game 2, he shot 4-of-17 for 19%, with six more turnovers. Let’s put this into perspective.
Durant has played in 929 games since coming into the league in 2007-08. He has averaged 27.2 points per game, shot 49.6% from the field, made 88.4% of his free throw attempts, and averaged 7.1 rebounds per game.
He has averaged only 3.2 turnovers per game and attempted 18.6 shots per game. He is one of only three players in NBA history to average 25+ points per game with a true shooting percentage of at least 60%.
Durant has played in 165 playoff games, started 153 and has posted 44 double-doubles and two triple-doubles.
Including the past two games, he has had six turnovers in 18 of 165-playoff games. Perhaps the wear and tear of the NBA on his 33-year-old body has taken a toll. Maybe the Celtics defense, who was the best unit in the NBA from Game 42 on, is simply able to shut down the best scoring machine on the planet. The one fact remains that Durant has had some of the best playoff games of his career coming off some of his worst performances.
What Do the Analytics Tell Us?
The following betting system has produced a 59-28 against the spread record for 70% winning bets over the past five seasons.
The requirements are to bet on home teams with a win percentage between 45 and 55% on the season, in a game lined within the 3’s (from a 3-point favorite to a 3-point underdog) and who have won five or six of their last seven games.
Playoff teams that lost their last two games by no more than 10 points combined are 49-24-4 straight-up and 43-29-1 against the spread for 60% winning bets including a solid 28-43-2 Over-Under mark, good for 61% winning Under bets spanning the last 20 NBA playoff seasons.
Over the past five seasons, this situation has produced a highly profitable 11-1 straight-up record and 10-2 against the spread record for 83% winning bets.
I am betting the Nets to win and cover the spread.
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Chicago Bulls (Sunday)
Game 2 on Friday, the Bucks earned a 30-point dominating win, easily covered the spread as 2.5-point road favorites and took a 2-1 series lead.
The Bucks had five players scored in double figures, led by Grayson Allen, who scored 22 points shooting 8-of-12 form the field including 5-of-7 from beyond the arc.
The Bulls shot 39%, 26% from 3-point range, and made just six of 10 free.
It might be difficult for the Bulls to bounce back with a home win on Sunday.
Playoff teams that suffered a home defeat of 20 or more points that were installed as an underdog, have produced a 5-22 straight-up record and 11-16 against the spread for 41% winning bets over the past 20 playoff seasons.
If the current game has our embarrassed team playing at home again, they are an even worse 2-13 straight-up and 4-11 against the spread for 27% winning bets.
I like betting the Bucks minus the points Sunday.
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