Sports Betting Analytics You Need for Game 6 of the NBA Finals

Article By John Ryan

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John Ryan founded a cutting-edge sports technology company more than 25 years ago. John has utilized many of the machine learning tools that have applications in other industries to successfully build simulation models, neural networks, and many types of algorithms that have earned strong predictive results. To identify a betting opportunity the fundamental research must support the mathematical projections. John has a proven track record of success as shown in his season records and numerous Top-10 finishes in all Major Sports.

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Last Updated: Mar 14^th, 2024

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Andrew Wiggins was a first overall draft pick nearly eight years ago, and in this year’s NBA Finals, it has been his time to shine. 
BetMGM Sportsbook has him at +2000 to win Finals MVP, which might be a good bet. 

It will be challenging to overcome Stephen Curry, who has had a tremendous overall series, but the voters might be swayed by recency bias. 

Wiggins has back-to-back double-doubles and readers of this column know we were on him in both games. It could be worth a shot to back him for the award.
 

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The Game 6 Situational Angles 

To help with your NBA betting, here are the trends and angles you need to know for Game 6.

• Home teams in Game 6 are 5-6 straight-up (SU) and 4-7 against the spread (ATS), including a 7-4 Over-Under record.
• Home favorites of any spread are 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS, including a 6-3 Over-Under record.
  The team that has shot a higher 3-point percentage through the first four games of the Finals is 6-9 SU and 8-7 ATS and 7-8 Over-Under.
• The team that was the home team in Game 5 is 10-5 SU and ATS for 67% winning bets, including a 7-8 Over-Under record.
• The Warriors are 34-24 ATS this season and playoffs when taking on a foe with a winning record.
• The Warriors are 14-8 SU and 9-13 against the spread, including a 12-9-1 Over-Under record in the playoffs.
• The Celtics are 2-4 SU and 2-3-1 ATS, including a 5-1 Under record, good for 83% winning bets.

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I will place 50% of my standard wager size on the Under, currently at 209.5 points as offered at BetMGM and then add 25% In-Game at 214.5 points and 25% more at 218.5 points. 
These levels are calculated using an implied scoring volatility equation I developed 10 seasons ago and it looks to exploit the pace of play of an NBA game during the first half action and betting the full game live betting lines. 

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John Ryan founded a cutting-edge sports technology company more than 25 years ago. John has utilized many of the machine learning tools that have applications in other industries to successfully build simulation models, neural networks, and many types of algorithms that have earned strong predictive results. To identify a betting opportunity the fundamental research must support the mathematical projections. John has a proven track record of success as shown in his season records and numerous Top-10 finishes in all Major Sports.

Read Full Bio

John Ryan

Last Updated:   Mar 14^th, 2024

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