Sports Betting Analytics You Need for Game 6 of the NBA Finals

Sports Betting Analytics You Need for Game 6 of the NBA Finals
© USA Today

Andrew Wiggins was a first overall draft pick nearly eight years ago, and in this year’s NBA Finals, it has been his time to shine. 
BetMGM Sportsbook has him at +2000 to win Finals MVP, which might be a good bet. 

It will be challenging to overcome Stephen Curry, who has had a tremendous overall series, but the voters might be swayed by recency bias. 

Wiggins has back-to-back double-doubles and readers of this column know we were on him in both games. It could be worth a shot to back him for the award.

The Game 6 Situational Angles 

To help with your NBA betting, here are the trends and angles you need to know for Game 6.

  • Home teams in Game 6 are 5-6 straight-up (SU) and 4-7 against the spread (ATS), including a 7-4 Over-Under record.
  • Home favorites of any spread are 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS, including a 6-3 Over-Under record.
    The team that has shot a higher 3-point percentage through the first four games of the Finals is 6-9 SU and 8-7 ATS and 7-8 Over-Under.
  • The team that was the home team in Game 5 is 10-5 SU and ATS for 67% winning bets, including a 7-8 Over-Under record.
  • The Warriors are 34-24 ATS this season and playoffs when taking on a foe with a winning record.
  • The Warriors are 14-8 SU and 9-13 against the spread, including a 12-9-1 Over-Under record in the playoffs.
  • The Celtics are 2-4 SU and 2-3-1 ATS, including a 5-1 Under record, good for 83% winning bets.

I will place 50% of my standard wager size on the Under, currently at 209.5 points as offered at BetMGM and then add 25% In-Game at 214.5 points and 25% more at 218.5 points. 
These levels are calculated using an implied scoring volatility equation I developed 10 seasons ago and it looks to exploit the pace of play of an NBA game during the first half action and betting the full game live betting lines.