Top Situational Trends and Angles You Need to Know for the NBA Finals

Top Situational Trends and Angles You Need to Know for the NBA Finals
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To get you ready to bet on the NBA Finals, we break down top trends and angles you should be aware of during this season's playoffs.

 

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  • The home teams are 53-34 straight-up and 45-42 against the spread, including a 24-51-2 Over-Under record, good for 60% winning Under bets.
  • Home favorites are 38-17 straight-up and 30-25 against the spread, including 24-31-1 Over-Under, good for 56.4% winning Under bets.
  • Home dogs are 11-14 straight-up and 12-13 against the spread, including 10-15 Over-Under, good for 60% winning Under bets.
  • Home favorites coming off a straight-up loss are 19-8 straight-up and 14-13 against the spread, including a 7-20-0 Over-Under record, good for 74% winning Under bets.
  • Home favorites coming off a win are 19-9 straight-up and 16-12 against the spread, including an even 17-11 Over-Under record, for 60% winning Over bets.
  • Home teams that are the better seed are 32-12 straight-up and 28-16 against the spread, including 19-24-1 Over-Under, good for 56% winning Under wagers.

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The Top 10 Situational Angles 

  • Home Favorites are 65-29 straight-up and 50-40-4 against the spread, including a 41-49-4 Over-Under record, good for 54% winning Under wagers spanning the previous 19 playoff seasons.
  • Home favorites coming off a straight-up loss are 19-7 straight-up and 11-12-3 against the spread for 48% winning bets, including a 12-13-1 Over-Under record, good for 52% winning Under wagers spanning the last 19 playoff seasons (11-5 straight-up and against the spread with a 6-10-0 Over-Under record last five playoff seasons)
  • Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are coming off a loss are 48-19 straight-up and 39-26-2 against the spread, including a 28-37-2 Over-Under record, good for 57% winning Under bets spanning the last 19 playoff seasons. Plus, they're 6-3 straight-up and against the spread record for 67% winning bets with a 4-5 Over-Under record spanning the last five playoff seasons.
  • The total has averaged 218 points in the NBA Conference Finals over the last five playoff seasons and has averaged 208.92 in these playoffs. The average total had risen for 10 consecutive seasons until last year’s average of 218.36 points fell short of the 2020 average of 222.14 points and has declined nine points this season. In this season's NBA Finals matchup between the Celtics and the Warriors, the average total will be a little bit higher than last year’s average of 211.5 points.
  • Home favorites in the NBA Finals with a total of 215 or fewer points are 53-27 straight-up and 40-37-3 against the spread, good for 52% winning bets, including a 32-44 Over-Under record spanning the last 19 NBA finals.
  • Home favorites in the NBA Finals with a total of 215 or more points are 13-5 SU and 11-6-1 ATS for 65% winning bets, including an 11-7 Over-Under record, good for 61% winning Over bets.
  • In the NBA Finals, a home team playing in Game 3 and had lost the first two games of the series on the road are 7-5 SU and 4-8 ATS for 33% winning bets, including a 5-6-1 Over-Under record.
  • In Game 4 of the NBA Finals, the home team down 2-1 is 8-8 SU and 7-8-1 ATS, including a 3-12-1 Over-Under record, good for 75% winning Under bets.
  • The team that has averaged more points in the paint than the opponent in the current NBA playoffs is 11-7 SU and 12-6 ATS, good for 67% winning bets, including 7-11 Over-Under, good for 61% winning Under wagers spanning the last 19 playoff seasons.
  • The team with a higher 3-point shooting percentage is 15-6 SU and 12-8-1 ATS for 60% winning bets in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. These better shooting 3-point teams are just 11-10 SU and 11-9-1 ATS for 55% winning bets, including a 6-14-1 Over-Under record, good for 70% winning Under bets.
     
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