Will Philadelphia Roll Against Toronto and Can Memphis Bounce Back in Game 2?
From last week’s NBA article, I detailed how each seed has performed for bettors spanning the past 20 playoff seasons.
The No. 2-seed has made the most NBA Finals appearances of any other seed with 18 or 45% of all possible appearances.
In the first weekend of this year’s playoffs, the No. 2-seed in the Western Conference, the Memphis Grizzlies, lost Game 1 of their first round series to the Minnesota Timberwolves.
How Do the 2-Seeds Respond to a Game 1 Loss?
Overall, the second seeded teams are 35-27 straight-up and 33-29 against the spread, including a 31-28-3 Over-Under record in Game 2 of any round of the playoffs when having lost Game 1 spanning the last 20 NBA playoff seasons.
If the Game 1 loss occurred in the first round of the playoffs against the No. 7 seed, the 2s respond and answer the bell with a 6-0 straight-up and against the spread record, including a 4-2 Over-Under record.
This situational trend favors betting the Grizzlies Tuesday night. The Grizzlies are a seven-point home favorite with a posted total of 241.5 points.
The market opened with the Grizzlies priced as a seven-point favorite and with the total opening at 242 points. So, in early betting action there has been a strong interest to bet the Grizzlies, but there has not been enough money bet to force the books to move to 7.5 or more points.
However, I do see this line moving higher and making the Grizzlies a potential 8.5-point favorite. So, if you like the Grizzlies, as I do, betting them now is the preferred strategy.
The Timberwolves were 6.5-point road underdogs going into Game 1. We know that these upset makers are 0-6 straight-up and against the spread. Let’s extend this situation a bit further by diving deeply into the database.
Presuming the Grizzlies will not go down 0-2 in the series and win Game 2, note that the 2-seeds are 4-0 straight-up and against the spread.
In fact, after losing Game 1, the No. 2 seeds are 9-4 straight-up and 10-3 against the spread, including a 6-7 Over-Under record in Game 3 and on in the series.
How Do NBA Playoff Teams Do Following a Double-Digit ATS Win?
The Philadelphia 76ers beat the Toronto Raptors 131-111 in Game 1 of their series and covered the spread easily installed as 4.5-point home favorites.
Any playoff team that covered the spread as a home favorite by double digits and is now priced as a home favorite in Game 2 is 45-13 straight-up for 78% wins and 34-23-1 against the spread for 60% winning bets, including a 24-33-1 Over-Under record of 58% winning Under bets.
The 76ers are currently priced as 7-point home favorites in tonight’s Game 2, with a posted total of 218 points. I like the 76ers to win this game by double digits and cover the spread.
The Situational Trends and Angles that Support the 76ers
- The Raptors are 1-9 against the spread in road games and playing their 4th or fewer game over the last 10 days spanning the last two seasons.
- The 76ers are 20-8-1 against the spread when playing their 4th or fewer game over the last 10 days spanning the last two seasons.
From my predictive models, we learn that the 76ers are expected to shoot between 48 and 53% from the field.
In past games, in which the 76ers shot within this range, they have gone on to earn an 18-5 against the spread record, good for 78% winning bets this season and 45-22 against the spread for 67.2% winning bets over the last three seasons.
I like betting the Philadelphia 76ers as a 7.5-point.
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