NCAA Men’s Basketball Previews, Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, March 2
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Here is tonight's 3-pointer, college basketball betting advice on three NCAA men's games.
Notre Dame vs. Florida State
- Donald L. Tucker Civic Center, Tallahassee, Florida
- 7 p.m. ET Tip
Notre Dame will look to extend its good run of late when it travels to Florida State tonight. The Irish have gone 17-3 straight-up and 15-5 against the spread (ATS) since losing to Indiana on December 18.
Florida State has underperformed this season, posting a 15-13 straight-up record and a miserable money-burning 9-18-1 against the spread record.
The Seminoles must win the ACC Tournament to earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament. They can take a step forward in that direction with a win over Notre Dame, which would earn them a bye to the second round of the ACC tourney.
This is a contrarian play on FSU, given they are just 1-8-1 against the spread over their past 10 games, while Notre Dame is a sparkling 7-3 against the spread over their past 10 games.
Two teams heading in opposite directions often produces opportunities with the struggling team and I think that is the case in this matchup.
The line opened with Florida State installed as a 1.5-point underdog and bettors immediately rushed to take the hot playing Notre Dame squad with this short line.
The market has moved Florida State to a 2-point home underdog. I believe you will see more money coming in Notre Dame than Florida State and a +3.5 line is possible.
The 71% ATS Betting System
March is the best month of the college basketball season, starting with the conference tournament games and then the NCAA Tournament that always produces upsets. This time of the year also spawns many high-powered betting systems, and here is one of them.
This system has earned a 62-25 against the spread record for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons. The requirements are to bet on home teams in March that are taking on a foe that scored 85 or more points in a home win in their previous game.
Bet Florida State as an underdog.
Oklahoma State vs. Iowa State
- Hilton Coliseum, Ames, Iowa
- 7 p.m. ET Tip
The Iowa State Cyclones will look to make it five straight Big-12 Conference wins when they take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys tonight.
Just five games ago, the Cyclones were 3-9 in conference play and appeared to have played themselves right out of the NCAA Tournament. However, they have remarkably won four consecutive games and are now a bubble team at the very least.
The betting line opened with the Cyclones a 3-point home favorite. The market has seen 77% of the bets backing the Cyclones, forcing the market to move higher to -3.5 points. This line could easily steam its’ way to the 4.5-point level before tip-off.
The fact that this high a percentage of bettors are on the Cyclones immediately classifies this as a contrarian betting opportunity on the Cowboys.
Trends and Angles
The Cowboys are 68-43-3 against the spread when coming off two consecutive games as an underdog, spanning the past 25 seasons.
The Cyclones are 0-7 against the spread when playing at home on Wednesdays spanning the last three seasons.
The Cyclones are 4-13 against the spread in home games following a conference matchup over the past two seasons.
I am on Oklahoma State and will gladly take the points.
Chicago State vs. Cal Baptist
- CBU Events Center, Riverside, California
- 10 p.m. ET Tip
The predictive models recommend a bet on the Chicago State, plus the generous number of points as a 3-Unit Best Bet.
Let’s face it, CSU is not a good team no matter how you slice the data. They average 63 points per game and allow 76.6 points per game for a horrid scoring differential of -13.6.
In home games, they have produced a 5-9 straight-up record and 6-8 against the spread, including a 7-6 Over-Under record. However, in road games, they are 2-13 straight-up, but a highly profitable 10-5 against the spread.
Now, here is a system that exploits double-digit favorites, who are playing a team like CSU, and, most of the time, forget to show up for the game.
How The Betting System Views The Matchup
The system has earned a 245-145-7 against the spread record, for 64% winning bets over the past 25 seasons, 92-51-5 against the spread for 60% winning bets over the last five seasons, 78-33-3 against the spread for 70% winning bets over the last three seasons and is 22-9 against the spread this season.
The requirements are to bet on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that are being outscored by their opponents by 12 or more points per game and scored 65 or fewer points in each of their last two games.
Now, if this underdog has scored 65 or fewer points in three consecutive games, then the record improves to 54-19-3 against the spread for 65% winning bets over the last three seasons.
Cal Baptist is 0-7 against the spread when facing teams who average 21 or more 3-point shot attempts per game in the second half of the season (after game number 15) in each of the last two seasons.
I am taking Chicago State and the points.
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