College Football Picks: Best Bets for Week 2

College Football Picks: Best Bets for Week 2
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Looking ahead to Week 2 of the college football betting season to give you wagering advice.

I got out of the gate quite well winning both games from last week’s NCAA football picks. Let’s see if we can keep it going and get right to the Week 2 Best Bets card. 

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Ohio at Penn State

Saturday, Noon ET

Line: Nittany Lions -24.5 | Total: 54 points

The Nittany Lions came from behind 35-31 win against Big Ten rival Purdue helped them cover the spread as 3.5-point road favorites. 

This type of win should make Penn State more confident moving forward and I see this team getting better and better with each passing week.

What Do the Predictive Models Have to Share?

With a line that favors the Nittany Lions by 24.5 points and a total of 54 points implies a Penn State win in the 39.25-14.75 range. My predictive mode shows a high probability that the Nittany Lions will score at least 35 points.

  • Penn State is 23-2 straight-up (SU) and 18-5 against the spread (ATS) for 78% winning bets when scoring 35 or more points over the last five seasons.
  • The Nittany Lions are 29-0 SU and 22-6-1 ATS for 79% winning bets in games in which they allowed 17 or fewer points over the past five seasons.

I am betting Penn State -24 points as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

 

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Alabama at Texas 

Saturday, Noon ET

Line: Crimson Tide -20.5 | Total: 65 points

The total for this matchup opened at 61.5 points and the betting community has been enamored in betting the Over, driving the price to 65 points. I see it moving higher and might even reach 67 before kick-off. 

Alabama's offense has no weaknesses, and it has the potential to put up 50 or more points against any opponent on its schedule this season. And, as usual, it has an extremely strong defense. 

The Crimson Tide and the Longhorns return seven starters on defense from last year’s units. The Longhorns unit is expected to be significantly better than last season and my predictive model confirms this expectation.

A Golden NCAA Football Betting System

The following set of performance measures combine to produce a 226-156-13 record, good for 65% winning Under bets spanning the last five seasons. The requirements are:

  • Bet Under when the total is 60 or more points.
  • One of the teams involved is coming off a game in which they scored 50 or more points.

Plus, a subset of this dataset that if our team that scored 50 or more points is ranked in the Top 5 of the most recent AP poll, the Under has gone 28-15-2 for 65% winning bets.

I am betting the Under 65 points as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

 

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Boston College at Virginia Tech

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET

Line: Hokies -2.5 | Total: 47 points

I like the Over bet in this matchup quite a bit and let’s look at this betting system that has earned a 51-23-5 record, good for 69% winning Over bets, in the last 10 seasons and a 22-7 record, good for 76% winning bets, over the past five seasons. The requirements are:

  • Bet the Over when the total is priced between 42.5 and 49 points.
  • One of the teams struggled on defense, allowing 5.75 or more points per play in their previous season.
  • That same team is starting a new quarterback on offense.
  • The game is a conference matchup.

Last year, the Hokies allowed 5.9 yards per play which ranked 10th in the ACC. 

Virginia Tech quarterback Braxton Burmeister started 12 of 13 games last season. This season there is a new quarterback running the offense in Marshall transfer Grant Wells.

I am betting the Over 45.5 points -110 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

 

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