College Football Picks: Best Bets for Week 4

College Football Picks: Best Bets for Week 4
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We're off to a good start so far at Gambling.com. I have a 6-1 record against the spread (ATS) record my picks so far. 

Check out this NCAA football situational angle that is one of the best profit generators among the more than 5,000 trends and angles I have created and this is on a big underdog this week.

Let's check out this week's picks.

 

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Florida at Tennessee 

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Line: Vols –10.5 | Total: 62 points

The No. 11 Volunteers have an excellent opportunity to move into the Top 10 with a win over the No. 21 Gators and end a painful five-game losing streak. 

Getting the win will be far easier than covering the spread. Double-digit favorites that are ranked better in the AP poll than their opponent and with a game total of at least 60 points have produced a 51-17 straight-up (SU) record good for 75% wins, but a money-losing 31-36-1 ATS for 46% winning bets since 2008.

What Do the College Football Predictive Models Have to Share?

A line favoring the Volunteers by 10.5 points and a total of 62 points implies a 36.25-25.75 win. 

My predictive mode shows a high probability that the Gators will score at least 27 points and have the same or fewer turnovers in this game.

  • The Gators are 86-4 (SU) for 96 wins and 62-23-3 ATS, for 73% winning bets, when scoring 27 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers than their opponent over the last 10 seasons.
  • The Gators are 9-2 SU and 9-1-1 ATS, for 90% winning bets, when priced as an underdog, scoring 27 or more points, and having the same or fewer turnovers than their opponent over the last 10 seasons.

I am betting the Gators +10.5 points as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

 

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Minnesota at Michigan State

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network

Line: Gophers –2.5 | Total: 51 points

The Spartans are coming off a demoralizing 39-28 loss to the Washington Huskies in Spokane and failed to cover the spread as 3.5-point underdogs. 

The market gives us strong hints when the unranked home team is favored in a game against a ranked opponent. Overall, my research over the week has centered on the Gophers' powerful ground attack that I do not see the Spartans being able to contain.

College Football Predictive Model Projections

My predictive model expects the Gophers to gain at least 200 rushing yards.

  • The Spartans are 3-20 straight-up (SU) and 7-16 against the spread (ATS), for 29% winning bets, when an opponent has gained 175 or more rushing yards and the Spartans were priced as the dog.
  • The Gophers are 47-7 SU and 35-19 ATS, for 65% winning bets, when favored and gaining 175 or more rushing yards.

I am betting on Minnesota -2.5 points that is offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

 

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Kansas State at Oklahoma 

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, Fox

Line: Sooners –12.5 | Total: 53 points

Betting on home teams fresh off a 28-point or more road win that has won at least 80% of its games and is facing a team with a winning record has earned a 28-4 SU record for 88% wins and 22-9-1 ATS for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

The Sooners defeated Nebraska at Lincoln by the final score of 49-14 and easily covered the spread as 10.5-point road favorites.

College Football Situational Trends and Angles

  • The Sooners are 42-4 SU and 31-15 ATS in home games and coming off a double-digit road win.
  • The Sooners are a solid 8-1 ATS run when facing a team with a winning record over the past three seasons.

I am betting the Sooners -12.5 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

 

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Quick Kicks

Here are a few other games worth looking at this week.

Bet on Penn State -28 over Central Michigan

  • Bet 50% of your bet amount before kick-off and add the remaining 50% on Penn State at -21.5 or lower.

Bet Maryland plus the 17 points over Michigan

  • Bet 50% of your bet amount before kick-off and add 25% at Maryland priced as a 20.5-point underdog and the last 25% as a 25.5-point dog.

Bet on Akron Zips plus the 26 points over Liberty Flames

  • Despite the Zips being so poor in both SU and ATS, this is far too many points to be getting from the Flames and Liberty wins but by 21 or fewer points.
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