College Football Picks: Can Kansas State Upend TCU in Big 12 Title Game?

College Football Picks: Can Kansas State Upend TCU in Big 12 Title Game?
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The Big 12 championship game between Kansas State and TCU offers opportunities for those looking to rack up some college football betting winners. The game is Saturday at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

Other title games also are on the line this weekend.

Let's take a look.

No. 10 Kansas State Wildcats vs. No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs

Saturday, Noon ET, ABC

Line: TCU -1 points | Total: 61points

I am betting on Kansas State, using the moneyline +110 as offered at BetRivers Sportsbook.

Predictive Model Favors K-State

With a line favoring TCU by one point, and an Over-Under of 61 points, the implication is that TCU will prevail, 31-30. 

My predictive model shows a high probability that TCU will score 27 or fewer points on Saturday and will record the same number of turnovers as K-State, or fewer.

Over the past five seasons, TCU is 3-16 SU (16%) and 2-17 ATS (11%) in games scoring 27 or fewer points and having the same or more turnovers as their opponent.

Also over the past five seasons, K-State is 23-6 SU (79%) and 24-5 ATS (83%) when allowing 27 or fewer points and having the same or fewer turnovers.

That’s why I’m taking K-State on the moneyline.

Live In-Game Betting Strategy

With a current Over-Under of 61 points, there will be the potential for multiple scores by the same team before the other team answers back with its own score.

So, consider betting K-State with 50% of your normal bet size on the moneyline “pre-flop,” and then look for TCU to score the first touchdown (not a field goal).

If that happens, then add the remaining 50% bet amount at 4.5 or more points using the live betting lines.

Quick Kicks

Here are some other betting opportunities on my radar to bet on this weekend.

  • Take North Carolina +7.5 points over Clemson in the ACC Championship game.
  • Take Troy at -7.5 points over Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt Conference Championship. Over the past three seasons, Troy is 10-2 ATS when facing solid passing teams that are averaging eight or more passing yards per attempt.

 

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