College Football Picks: Tennessee vs. Georgia Between the Hedges

College Football Picks: Tennessee vs. Georgia Between the Hedges
© USA Today

It's the biggest game of the year for college football betting players as No. 1 plays No. 1, or No. 1 vs. No. 2, or No. 1 vs. No. 3. OK, no matter what poll you look at, Georgia vs. Tennessee is a massive game with significant playoff implications. 

We'll preview that game and some other big ones on the schedule.

No. 1 Tennessee Volunteers at No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Line: Georgia -8.5 points | Total: 65 points

I am betting the Georgia -8.5 points offered at BetMGM.

The Volunteers, who were not even ranked in the preseason polls, are now ranked No. 1 in the first college football playoff ranking. Georgia is third in those rankings.

The host Bulldogs, the defending national champ, welcomes Tennessee to Athens in the best football weather possible, 75 degrees and clear skies. Georgia is ranked No. 1 in the AP poll and Tennessee is tied with Ohio State for second.

What Do the Predictive Models Have to Share?

A line favoring Georgia by 8.5 points and a total of 65 points would indicate a 36.75-28.25 Georgia win. 

My predictive model shows a high probability that Georgia will score at least 28 points and have the same or fewer turnovers in this game.

  • Georgia is 26-1 straight up and 23-4 against the spread (85%) in games where it scores 28 or more points and has the same or fewer turnovers than its opponent over the past five seasons.
  • Tennessee is 3-24 SU and 5-22 ATS (19%) when allowing 28 or more points and having the same or more turnovers over the past five seasons.

Live In-Game Betting Strategy

Totals priced above 60 points will feature greater volatility on the scoreboard, meaning one of the teams can score two or more times before the opponent answers. 

So, if you like Georgia, hope that Tennessee wins the toss and elects to receive and scores a touchdown on that first possession. 

I like betting 50% of my normal bet amount preflop and then, after kickoff, will add 25% more if Tennessee scores a touchdown first, which would bring the line down to about -6. Then the remaining 25% would be placed on Georgia full game if, at any point during the first half, Tennessee scores two times without an answer from Georgia.

Other Big College Football Games on the Schedule

Here are some other teams to bet on this weekend.

Take LSU +13.5 points against Alabama at FanDuel.

Take Penn State -13.5 points against Indiana at DraftKings.

  • Indiana is 0-6 ATS following two consecutive games forcing no more than a single turnover in each game over the past two seasons.

Take USC -21.5 points over California at Caesars.

Take the Under 40 points in the Air Force vs. Army game in Arlington, Texas at BetRivers.

  • Bet the Under when the three armed forces teams play each other and the total is 42 or lower. The Under has earned a 22-2 record, good for 92% winning bets since 2008.
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