Los Angeles Rams Favored Over Cincinnati Bengals in Early Super Bowl Odds

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Los Angeles Rams Favored Over Cincinnati Bengals in Early Super Bowl Odds
© USA Today

With the score 21-3 late in the second quarter of the AFC Championship Game, the Kansas City Chiefs were making my personal highest-rated 5% of my bankroll wager look completely wrong and perhaps lacking any form of sports betting intelligence.

However, the in-game betting markets offered me the Bengals at +17.5 points, and I added a pizza money size wager (0.5-units) and everything came together quite nicely in the second half, sending me to the window to cash the tickets as the Cincinnati Bengals are headed to Super Bowl LVI. They will take on the Los Angeles Rams on Feb. 12 at the SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

Over the first 54 Super Bowls, no team had ever hosted the Super Bowl on their home field. Now, home teams have played in the past two Super Bowls, with the Tampa Bay Bucs last year and the Rams at home this year.

Oddly, the Cincinnati Bengals will be the designated home team.

Rams Favored In Super Bowl

The NFL betting markets opened Super Bowl LVI with the Rams installed as 3.5-point favorites and the line moved quickly to -4 in the first 12 hours of betting action.

The Total for this game opened at 50 points and has adjusted to 49.5 points in early betting action.

The current market reflects a 27-23 Rams win. Over the past five seasons, the Rams are 45-7 straight-up (SU), 36-13-3 against the spread (ATS), and 35-16-1 over-under in games played, scoring 27 or more points.

How the Defenses Affect Market

In games played over the last five seasons in which the Rams scored fewer than 27 points, they have been a money-burning 15-22 SU, 12-25 ATS and with a 7-29 over-under.

The Bengals are 5-43 SU, 318-27-3 against the spread, and with a 13-31-4 over-under when scoring fewer than 23 points in games played over the past five seasons. Over the same span and scoring 23 or more points the Bengals have earned a 26-8-1 SU, 28-7 ATS mark for 80% winning tickets, and with a 24-9-2 over-under record.

Looking at the defensive results for the market’s Super Bowl expectations, the Rams are 20-23 SU, 13-28-2 ATS, and with a 32-10-1 over-under when they allow more than 23 points over the last five seasons. They are 40-6 SU, 35-10-1 ATS, and with a 10-35-1 over-under in games they allowed 23 or fewer points.

The Bengals are 5-26 SU, 8-22-1 ATS, and with a 22-7-2 over-under when allowing 27 or more points in games played over the past five seasons. In games they allowed fewer than 27 points, they were 26-25-1 SU, 38-12-2 ATS, for 76% winning tickets, and a 33-15-4 over-under.

The team with the lower win percentage is a remarkable 11-4 SU and 14-1 ATS including a 5-10 over-under record for the past 15 Super Bowls.

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John Ryan

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