Monday Night Football Picks: What's Going on With Denver?

Monday Night Football Picks: What's Going on With Denver?
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To help with your NFL betting ahead of the MNF game tonight, check out how the predictive models see the game.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers

8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

Line: Chargers -4.5 | Total: 46 points

Even though the Broncos (2-3 straight-up, 1-4 against the spread, 1-4 Over-Under) and L.A. Chargers (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS, 3-2 Over-Under) have the same record, they are teams going in the opposite direction.

The Broncos have underperformed, losing their last two games. The Colts loss last Thursday was a dreadful performance. Denver lost 12-9 as 3-point home favorites. 

Despite the acquisition of all-pro quarterback Russell Wilson, the offense has been pathetic. They rank last, averaging 15 points per game with a .236 points-per-play ratio. They have gone Under their team total by combined 41 points in just five games

What Is a Sharp Line Reversal?

The betting markets opened this game with the Chargers favored by six points and the public went to the window quickly and often to bet the Chargers. 

Despite 65% of the tickets bet on the Chargers, the line has moved down and the Chargers are a 4.5-point favorite. How is this possible?

The ‘sharps’ are the reason why the line has reversed course. Those are the professional or big-money bettors. They account for 55% of the total money booked, but just 35% of the tickets.

Situational Trends and Angles

Generally, professionals look for contrarian opportunities that feature a struggling road team. 

The following situational trends and angles support a betting opportunity on the Broncos.

  • Underdogs who failed to make the playoffs last season are off to a solid 36-23 ATS (61%) this season.
  • Chargers are 8-16 ATS (33%) in home games and facing a strong defense allowing six or fewer yards per play (YPPL).
  • From my predictive models, the Chargers are expected to commit two turnovers.
  • The Chargers are 0-7-1 ATS in home games that they committed two turnovers.
  • The Broncos are 11-4-1 ATS (73%) when priced as a dog and forcing two turnovers.

I am betting on the Broncos +4.5 points as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Quick Picks

Here are some prop bets to consider in tonight's game.

For the season, player prop bets are 30-18 for 63% winning bets, making $1,033 per $50 bet.

  1. Bet the Chargers' Justin Herbert Under 266.5 -111 at Caesars.
  2. Bet the Chargers' Keenan Allen to score first touchdown +1000 at DraftKings.
  3. Bet the Broncos' Russell Wilson Over 31.5 pass attempts -122 at FanDuel.
  4. Bet the Chargers' Dustin Hopkins Over 1.5 field goals -115 at BetMGM.
  5. Bet the Broncos' Mike Boone to score a second half touchdown +340 at FanDuel.

Remember, sports betting is a marathon, not a get-rich scheme for one weekend. There will be losing weeks here on these pages and although I have had nine profitable seasons in the past 10, there is no guarantee I will hit 65% ATS again this season.

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