BMW Championship Betting Tips: 4 Selections From Second Play-Off Tournament

The FedExCup field has been cut from 70 to 50 for this week’s BMW Championship, the second of three Play-Off events, and it’s no surprise that Scottie Scheffler is the overwhelming 5/2 favourite on betting sites.

Rory McIlroy skipped last week’s St Jude Championship, but is back for the trip to Caves Valley which hosted the 2021 tournament won by Patrick Cantlay in a play-off with Bryson DeChambeau.

Four years ago, the Americans tied the lead on -27 on this par-72 course near Baltimore, but a major renovation in 2023 saw it lengthened to a stretching 7,600 yards.

With a couple of par-fives changed to long par-fours, Caves Valley is now a par-70, so we should expect a much higher winning score this week.

The tree-lined fairways are quite wide, but the greens are smaller than the PGA Tour average and pretty quick on the stimpmeter, measuring 12.5 feet.

Cantlay’s putting was off the charts when he won in 2021 and he was also top for scrambling, but with all the changes undergone here two years ago, it’s difficult to assess whether the skill-sets required to win here remain the same.

McIlroy finished fourth in 2021 and revealed the set-up “lets you hit driver, first and foremost”, so length could be an advantage this week.

The Panel are still revelling in Kurt Kitayama's 40/1 victory at the 3M Open and have picked out three players from the outrights for their BMW Championship betting tips and one top 20 after Chris Kirk obliged in this market at 23/10 last week.

BMW Championship Betting Tips: Young At Heart

Cameron Young looks like a player with a huge weight lifted from his shoulders after finally landing his maiden PGA Tour title at the Wyndham Championship a couple of weeks ago when he finished six shots clear of his nearest rival.

Young could have been forgiven for taking it easy at TPC Southwind, but instead he shot a final-round 64 – the best of the day – to finish outright fifth which propelled him back into the world’s top 20.

Only Denny McCarthy had a hotter putter on Sunday and his Strokes Gained measures were positive in all areas apart from Around the Green, so his confidence is clearly sky high.

Encouragingly, Young is one of the longest hitters in the PGA Tour and ranks 35th in the SG: Off-the-Tee standings which should be an advantage in Maryland.

In the top 10 for putting this season, in-form Young has all the ingredients needed to tame this course and kicks off The Panel’s BMW Championship predictions at 25/1 with golf betting sites.

BMW Championship Prediction 1: Cameron Young (Each-Way) - 25/1 With Betfred (Five Places)

BMW Championship Betting Tips:

• Cameron Young (Each-Way) - 25/1 With Betfred (Five Places)
• Sam Burns (Each-Way) - 33/1 With Ladbrokes (Six Places)
• Hideki Matsuyama (Each-Way) - 35/1 With Bet365 (Five Places)
• Nick Taylor Top 20 - 2/1 With SpreadEx

*Odds correct at time of publish, 10:30am, 13/8/25

BMW Championship Predictions: Bank On Consistent Burns

Sam Burns is 24th in the FedExCup standings, so still has some work to do if he is to make it to next week’s Tour Championship at East Lake.

The 29-year-old from Louisiana, unlike Young, played in the 2021 BMW Championship where he shared the lead after the opening round with a bogey-free eight-under-par 64.

A Saturday 65 helped secure outright eighth, so he should have fond memories of this course, even if it has changed significantly in the last couple of years.

Burns was hot with the putter last week, just as he has been all season, and it should suit his game if the greens play fast and firm.

Twelve months ago when the BMW Championship was played at Castle Pines, Burns finished a shot behind winner Keegan Bradley and he has never been outside the top 20 in four renewals of this tournament at different venues.

A fairly long driver of the ball, Burns will have been encouraged by last week’s final-round tee-to-green and approach numbers which have been his bugbear this season.

If his irons are dialled in, Burns, who has not missed a cut in more than four months, could be a threat and makes the cut at 33/1 as The Panel’s second selection.

BMW Championship Prediction 2: Sam Burns (Each-Way) - 33/1 With Ladbrokes (Six Places)

BMW Championship Betting Odds: Matsuyama Under The Radar 

Hideki Matsuyama is well positioned for another appearance at East Lake, but the 2021 Masters champion cannot afford to rest on his laurels in 21st spot.

The Japanese has finished inside the top 20 in his last four outings, so it was slightly surprising to see him initially priced at 40/1 with some betting apps, although those odds have since been cut to 35/1.

Matsuyama finished 16th at Royal Portrush, despite skipping the warm-up event at the Scottish Open, and played solidly at both Sedgefield and Southwind, so he arrives in Owing Mills in good nick.

Only US Ryder Cup skipper Bradley was better from tee-to-green than Matsuyama on the final day of the St Jude Championship and he was third for approach.

True, those areas have been Matsuyama’s bread and butter this year, so it’s just a question of whether he can get the flatstick fired up.

He showed in patches at the Wyndham, especially in the second round, that he can produce fireworks on the greens and if he can put it all together, a bold bid is expected from a player with excellent scrambling skills.

BMW Championship Prediction 3: Hideki Matsuyama (Each-Way) - 35/1 With Bet365 (Five Places)

*Odds correct at time of publish, 10:30am, 13/8/25

BMW Championship Top-20 Tips: Taylor Can Sew Up East Lake Spot

Nick Taylor is nestled in 22nd place in the FedExCup standings, so a consistent week should see him pull through for East Lake.

Taylor may lack the power of many in this field, which has been reduced to 49 following Sepp Straka's withdrawal for a family matter, but he makes it up for it from tee-to-green and especially for approach where he is 16th using the Strokes Gained metric.

The Canadian hasn’t had the best couple of weeks, missing the cut at The Open which he followed with a mid-table finish in Memphis, but prior to those tournaments, his worst finish in five outings was T23 at the US Open.

Taylor landed his fifth PGA Tour title at the Sony Open at the start of the year and while it would probably be expecting too much for him to win another in the same season – something he has never achieved – a top-20 finish does not look beyond him in a high-quality field.

That outcome can be backed at 2/1 with SpreadEx and is the last of this week’s BMW Championship betting tips.

BMW Championship Prediction 4: Nick Taylor Top 20 - 2/1 With SpreadEx