Kamala Harris Election Odds: Debate Win And Taylor Swift Push VP Ahead Of Trump

Betting sites have moved en masse to make Kamala Harris the favourite to win the 2024 presidential election after she beat Donald Trump in September’s TV debate and secured Taylor Swift’s endorsement.

Harris was having a good night of it on September 10 when she strolled off the debate stage having won the debate with Trump.

But her evening was to get even better when pop sensation Swift issued a statement that read: “I will be casting my vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the 2024 Presidential Election.

"I'm voting for Kamala Harris because she fights for the rights and causes I believe need a warrior to champion them.”

This endorsement is bigger than anything Harris could have done in the TV debate. In fact, it wipes the headlines from the debate off the newspaper front pages.

Swift’s influence is huge. She has a fanbase matched by few artists in the world, many of them women and girls for whom abortion access has become a priority in this election.

No wonder, then, that political betting sites have shifted their odds significantly in Harris’ favour following a big night for the Democrats.

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Kamala Harris Odds

Indeed, most bookmakers went into the debate with Trump slightly ahead of Harris in the odds. That’s changed now. Harris is 4/5 with BoyleSports to win the presidency – odds that carry a 55.6% probability.

Trump, meanwhile, has seen his price rebound to Evens (50%) with betting apps. That’s not a disaster for the Republican candidate but it ends two weeks of growing confidence in his campaign.

Harris had Trump in knots over abortion and immigration. She successfully deflected the debate away from illegal immigration on the border and had Trump on the back foot when talking about crowd sizes at his rallies.

Trump landed a few blows himself but Harris won the debate. A snap CNN poll suggested a 63-37 split in favour of the vice president.

Can Harris Beat Trump?

Indeed, Trump still pulls better when it comes to the economy. He successfully managed to speak up his record during the debate, but not for long enough. 

He struggled to stay on message during his two-minute solo speaking opportunities, veering off in wild directions.

For Harris, she still has to win the economic argument that is one of the three big issues heading into this election; the other two being abortion and immigration.

The debate was not a place to launch policy initiatives but Harris needs to offer something sweet to the American public if they are to vote for her.

Both sides already have around 45% of the electorate sewn up. It's the remaining 10% that’s up for grabs. 

Tax breaks and infrastructure investment are always high on the agenda. That particularly polls well with men, whom Trump believes is his core base.

And yet, for all the talk of policy, it’s the fact Swift is backing the Harris-Walz campaign that could make the biggest difference to the election.

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Swift has eye-wateringly vast appeal but it’s particularly around the issue of abortion and non-traditional families that the Democrats are winning here. In her statement, Swift called herself a “childless cat lady” – a reference to JD Vance’s attack on non-conservative values.

The message is clear. Americans should own their identity and be proud of it. Having the state dictate what you can and can’t do – which is the narrative the Dems have created around Trump’s abortion plan – is the consequence of voting Republican.

The Democrats will seize on this, while the GOP will be scrambling to figure out how to respond.

Harris cannot win this election on celebrity endorsements alone, or an impressive TV debate. However, she currently holds most of the cards and new betting sites think she’ll edge it.