When You Bet on the Wells Fargo Championship, Go With the Unexpected

When You Bet on the Wells Fargo Championship, Go With the Unexpected
© USA Today

With Qual Hollow set to host this year’s Presidents Cup, this weekend’s Wells Fargo Championship is taking place at TPC Potomac. 

Since the tournament’s inception in 2003, only once, in 2017 at Eagle Point, has the Wells Fargo Championship not taken place at Quail Hollow. 

Unlike the 7,600-yard Quail Hollow that benefits longer hitters, TPC Potomac is one of the shorter courses at just over 7,100 yards. The par-70 course has two par 5s and is played on bentgrass greens. So, how does this affect your golf betting?

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Overall, approach play and accuracy off the tee will be vital this week. 

TPC Potomac was last on the Tour schedule in 2018 when it served as host of the Quicken Loans National. Francesco Molinari won the tournament, shooting 21-under par. 

Rory McIlroy is the overwhelming favorite this week at +750 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

It’ll be McIlroy’s first tournament since shooting a 64 in the final round at the Masters. The next player with the best odds at FanDuel is Corey Conners at +1700, followed by Tony Finau (+2100), Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2100) and Abraham Ancer (+2800). 

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Best Bet

Tony Finau +2500 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Strokes Gained: Approach has been instrumental to success at TPC Potomac. Molinari gained 9.84 strokes on approach en route to his eight-stroke victory in 2018. Given the importance of solid iron play, I’m going with the guy who had one of the hotter approach plays on Sunday at the Mexican Open.

Finau led the field with 3.59 strokes gained on approach during his 8-under final round on Sunday. If not for numerous missed putts under four feet earlier in the week, Finau would have likely ran away with the event. He lost -2.26 strokes putting in Round 1 and -3.03 in the second round. 

Finau somehow turned it around by gaining 1.86 strokes on the greens in Round 3 and 1.49 on Sunday. 

Finau’s streaky iron play on Sunday wasn’t just a one-off performance. He ranks eighth on tour in average Strokes Gained: Approach per round at .817. 

I wouldn’t be surprised to see him carry momentum from Sunday into this weekend. In a weaker field, he’s one of the names to watch out for and I like this number on DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Longshot

Ryan Armour +20000 on DraftKings 

There are a few reasons why it’s worth throwing a dart on Ryan Armour this week. For one, TPC Potomac is not a longer course where bombers can spray the ball all over the place and avoid penalties.

The course rewards accurate drives, and Armour ranks first in driving accuracy this season, hitting 73% of the fairways off the tee. Armour also ranks 18th overall in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.

Armour also has the benefit of knowing he’s had success here. In 2018, he finished second to Molinari at 13-under par. 

Course history and his accuracy off the tee make Armour worth a shot at 200/1. 

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