MLB Double Play: Betting Advice on National and American League Games, April 18

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MLB Double Play: Betting Advice on National and American League Games, April 18
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Throughout the season, we will give you MLB betting advice for a National League and American League game each day and throw in a few quick pitches for prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

National League

San Francisco Giants +105 vs New York Mets -125

The New York Mets, who are 7-3 on the season and an impressive 8-2 record using the run line including a 3-6-1 Over-Under record, take on the San Francisco Giants in a series of two teams off to a great start.

The Mets are scoring 5.1 runs per game and allowing 2.5 runs per games for a 2.6 runs per game differential, which are both second-best in the NL.

The Mets will start Tyler Megill, who is off to his best start as a pro, with a 2-0 record and yet to allow an earned run, with no walks and 11 strikeouts.

The Giants counter with the veteran right-hander Alex Cobb, who will be making his second start. He went five innings in his first start, walked two and struck out 10.

The Mets are averaging a -139.5 moneyline favorite and making the $100 bettor a $305 profit for a 23.55% return on investment.

When facing left-handed starters, the Mets are 1-1, averaging a +105 moneyline underdog (-116 favorite and +126 underdog) and making $0.00.

The Giants are averaging a -127.20 favorite and making the $100 bettor a $213 profit and an 18% ROI. They are 2-0 when facing a left-handed starting pitcher and making $200 profit for the $100 bettor.

The Situational Trends and Angles

  • Mets skipper Buck Showalter is 75-51, making the $100 bettor a $2,550 profit when coming off a shutout win for his career.
  • Giants are 8-17 against the first-five moneyline when facing an opponent coming off a shutout win spanning the last five seasons.
  • When coming off a shutout win, the Mets are 13-10 against the first-five moneyline spanning the last five seasons.
  • Betting that there is a score in the first inning is on a 4-0 win streak following a Mets shutout win.

I like betting the Mets boxed with Megill using the moneyline.

American League

Baltimore +170 vs. Oakland -200

The Baltimore Orioles travel cross-country to take on the Oakland A’s to begin a four-game series.

Despite having an .500 record, the A’s rank sixth in MLB by outscoring their opponents by 1.0 run per game.

The Orioles rank 22nd in MLB, getting outscored by their opponents by 1.0 runs per game.

The betting markets opened with the A’s priced as -180 moneyline favorites and have seen 85% of the tickets bet and 64% of the money bet.

This has moved the A’s to be priced as a -190 home favorite and is likely to move higher throughout the afternoon.

The total opened at eight runs and dipped to 7.5, with a few books commanding -115 vig.

What the Betting System Says

The following situational betting system supports the Orioles and has produced a profitable 26-7 record using the moneyline, spanning the past five seasons. The requirements are:

  • Bet on an American League team using the 1.5 Run Line.
  • The team had a .410 or worse slugging percentage last season.
  • Is currently posting a .350 slugging percentage or worse over their past five games.

This is a system that illustrates that even the worst teams can have bounce back situations from a span of poor offensive production and the Orioles are that team tonight.

I like the Orioles using the +1.5 Run Line currently commanding –130 vig.

These are some other bets and leans I like on today’s schedule.

  • Phillies Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 total bases at -105 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook
  • Angels' Brandon Marsh Over 0.5 hits at -175 as offered at BetMGM.
  • Pirates starting pitcher Zach Thompson Under 2.5 earned runs allowed at -160 as offered at BetMGM.
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