MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 23

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MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 23

Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

National League Best Bet

Atlanta Braves -140 at Philadelphia Phillies +125

7:05 p.m. ET

The Phillies will look to win Game 2 of this four-game series by starting Aaron Nola (9-12, 3.38 ERA).

Nola has pitched well down the stretch and has posted a 2.87 ERA and a 1.085 WHIP over his last three starts. 

He ranks best in MLB with an 8.077 strikeouts-per-walk ratio and is fifth in MLB with 210 strikeouts. 

The Braves are starting Jake Odorizzi, who is 5-5 with a 4.04 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP and 73 strikeouts.

MLB Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Phillies using the moneyline in this matchup.

  • Phillies manager Rob Thompson is 15-4, making 13 units on the moneyline after losing four or five of his last six games.
  • Braves starter Odorizzi in three career starts against the Phillies, has posted a 6.09 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP
  • Phillies starter Nola is 14-10 in 29 career starts when facing the Braves with an ERA of 3.50 and a WHIP of 1.139.

I am betting the Phillies using the moneyline -160 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.


American League Best Bet

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

7:05 p.m. ET

The Yankees are 10-6, producing a 6% return on investment (ROI) against the Red Sox, including an 11-5 Over-Under record good for 69% winning bets this season. 

The American League East rivals will meet three more times over the weekend, featuring the Yankees' Aaron Judge going for the American League home run record of 61 held by Roger Maris and set in 1961.

MLB Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational betting angles support a bet on the Over.

  • The Yankees are 24-12 Over-Under. good for 67% winning Over bets. When at home and playing a team with a struggling bullpen with an ERA of 4.20 or lower in the last two seasons.
  • The Red Sox are 12-4 Over-Under, good for 75% winning Over bets, when facing elite power teams averaging 1.5 or more home runs per game this season.
  • The Yankees are 20-11 Over-Under, good for 65% winning Over bets, in home games played in the second half of this season.

I am going to the window betting the Over 7.5 runs -105 as offered at FanDuel Sportsbook.


Quick Pitches

Here are some player prop bets to consider on today's schedule.

  1. Bet the Yankees' Aaron Judge to hit a home run +250 at BetRivers.
  2. Bet the Astros' Chas McCormick to hit a home run +600 at FanDuel.
  3. Bet the Phillies' Bryce Harper to hit a home run +425 at Unibet.
  4. Bet the Phillies' starter Aaron Nola Under 1.5 earned runs allowed +105 at DraftKings.
  5. Bet the Red Sox's Rafael Devers to get 2+ hits +290 at FanDuel.

In the past 126 prop bet picks, I have a 57-69 record, making a profit of $442.20 per $20 pizza-money wager or $2,210 per $100 wager. The results over more than four months have produced a 67% ROI.


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