Brooklyn Nets at Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Analysis and Predictions
The Brooklyn Nets showed the NFL betting world who they are in the dominant 138-112 win over the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday. Brooklyn covered the spread by 27.5 points.
The Nets are now playing on back-to-back nights against an inferior foe, so the letdown factor is in full force in this matchup.
Before the huge win over the Bulls, the Nets had failed to cover the spread in seven consecutive games and had won five of their last seven games straight-up (SU).
As a team they shot 56% from the field, marking the first game shooting over 50% from the field in their last four, and just the second time in the past eight games.
The Thunder showed signs of improvement in mid-December when they put together a three-game win streak, the longest of the season.
Since then, they have redefined the art of losing. They are on a five-game losing streak and have lost eight of their past 10 games. However, they have done well against the spread (ATS), winning the bets in five of their last six games and seven of their past 10
So, the market has overreacted to their losing ways given their strong ATS records of late.
The Nets rank seventh in team scoring at 111.6 points per game. OKC is last at 100 PPG. The Nets rank fourth in shooting percentage at 47.1%, and the Thunder is last at 41.5%. The Nets rank 16tt, hitting 35% of their shots from long range, while the Thunder shoots 30.8% from long range.
From my predictive models, the Thunder shouldn't score more than 100 points and will not make better than 30% from beyond the arc.
When OKC nets those numbers, it has gone 8-50 SU, 13-45 ATS for 22.4% winning bets, and 51-5-2 on the under, for 91% winning under bets spanning the past five seasons.
In games the Nets held an opponent to these measures or worse, they are 47-6 SU, a remarkable 49-4 ATS record, for 93% winning bets, and the under has earned a 49-3-1 record for 94% winning bets spanning the past five seasons.
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