College Football: What We Learned Week 9

College Football: What We Learned Week 9
© USA Today

The NCAA football landscape has six undefeated teams in Ohio State, TCU, Georgia, Tennessee, Clemson and Michigan. Four of them appeared in the first week of the College Football Playoff rankings.

Tennessee is No. 1, Ohio State No. 2, Georgia No. 3 and Clemson No. 4. In college football betting, Michigan, TCU and Alabama all would be favored over Clemson by at least 4.5 points on a neutral field, and they must wonder what the committee saw in Clemson to rank it this high.

Big Favorites Continue to Win

In Week 9, favorites of 17.5 or more points went 7-0 straight up but just 2-4-1 against the spread, including a 5-2 Over-Under record. 

These big favorites have gone 180-10 for the season, hitting 95% wins, but the market has them priced correctly with a 95-91-4-3 ATS record including a 94-2-4 Over-Under record. 

Did the Ranked Teams Dominate in Week 9?

Ranked teams playing at home in Week 9 went 6-3 SU and 5-3-1 ATS, including 4-5 Over-Under. Over the past three weeks, ranked teams playing at home went 26-3 SU and 20-8-1 ATS (71%), including a 16-12 Over-Under result. 

Ranked teams on the road went 7-4 SU and 3-7-1 ATS, including 6-5 Over-Under. Over the past three weeks ranked road teams went just 9-18 SU and 8-18-1 ATS (31%), including a 17-10 Over-Under (63%). 

Food for the Betting Souls

I am looking at some extraordinarily strong betting opportunities in Week 10, with conference matchups involving a ranked favorite on the road and facing a conference foe. The following betting algorithm has produced a 174-53 SU record (77%), 135-89-3 ATS mark (60%), and 109-113-5 Over-Under record (49%) over the past 10 seasons.

  • Bet on road favorites that are averaging at least 31 points per game.
  • Bet on teams facing a conference foe in which their two previous games had at least 60 points scored in each game.

This set of parameters targets Central Florida as a 3.5-point favorite when it faces Memphis, and Alabama as a 13-point favorite when it travels to Baton Rouge to take on LSU on Saturday. 

Road favorites of -13 to -19.5 points have gone 43-6 SU (88%), 33-15-1 ATS (69%) and 25-20-4 Over-Under over the past 10 years. The decisive factor is that these road warriors have gone 17-2 SU (90%) and 14-4-1 ATS (77%) winning bets if the game occurs between Week 10 and Week 13 of the regular season. 

Best Bet for Week 8 to Bet Now

In a big SEC matchup, No. 1 Tennessee hosts No. 3 Georgia, which finds itself disrespected by the betting community, priced as an 8-point underdog. The current line and total of 66 points reflect a 37-29 Georgia win. My predictive model shows an 82% probability that Georgia will score at least 31 points and have fewer turnovers than Tennessee.

  • Tennessee is 2-18 SU and 6-14 ATS (30%) in home games priced as an underdog when they have allowed 31 or more points and had the same number of turnovers as, or more turnovers than, their opponent in games played over the past 10 seasons.
  • Georgia is 27-2 SU and 21-8 ATS (72%) as a road favorite when scoring 31 or more points and having the same number of turnovers as, or fewer turnovers than, their opponents in games played over the past 10 seasons.

Go to the window, if you agree with the research, and bet Georgia now, as the price will not get any lower.

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