What We Learned in College Football's Week 5

Date IconLast Updated: Sep 28th, 2023
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What We Learned in College Football's Week 5
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We learned that AP college football poll voting doesn't always match what we saw on the field. The Georgia Bulldogs, which came in No. 1, had to fight with everything they had to mount a furious fourth-quarter rally to defeat the Missouri Tigers as 30-point road favorites. 

So, why are the Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0 SU, 2-2-1 ATS, 3-2 Over-Under) not ranked No.1 in this week’s AP poll? 

The Buckeyes have not been challenged in their first five games, winning each by double digits. This week, they are favored by 25.5 points on the road against the Michigan State Spartans.

Miami vs. North Carolina Best Bet

I see the Miami Hurricanes struggling against North Carolina this week. Teams coming off a home loss priced as a 20-point favorite or more have gone 21-15 SU, 13-23 ASTS for 36% winning bets, including a 15-17-2 Over-Under record. 

If that team has fallen out of the Top 25, it is 9-8 SU and 4-13 ATS, for 24% winning bets, including a 4-10-1 Over-Under record, good for 71.4% winning Under wagers. 

I like the Under as an early look when the Hurricanes host the Tar Heels in Week 6, coming off Miami's bye.

The Big Favorites Continue to Win

In Week 6, favorites of 17.5 or more points went 14-2 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, including a 7-8-1 Over-Under record. So, these big favorites have won 88% of their games. But the market has them priced correctly, with the resulting 7-8 ATS record for Week 5 and 152-9 SU, 83-75-3 ATS for 53% winning bets, including an 80-77-4 Over-Under record for the season.

The two upset wins by underdogs of 17.5 or more points in Week 5 were Connecticut (-23.5) defeating Fresno State 19-14 and Georgia Tech (-21.5) defeating host Pittsburgh 26-21.

Ranked Teams Struggled in Week 6

Ranked teams struggled to win in Week 5, going just 13-10 SU, 8-14-1 ATS for 36% winning bets, including a 14-8-1 Over-Under record. 

There were five matchups in which each team was ranked, and the home teams in those matchups went 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS, including a 3-2 Over-Under record.

Food for the Betting Souls

I am looking at some strong betting opportunities in Week 6 action that involve ranked teams that have covered the spread in the first five games. 

This season, the surprise team on the college football landscape is Kansas, off to a 5-0 SU and ATS record, and will be hosting TCU, fresh off a big win against Oklahoma. 

The Jayhawks are five-point home underdogs, but that is about where the good news ends. Teams that have covered the spread in their first five games are just 2-5 SU, 1-6 ATS for 14% winning bets, including a 4-43 over-under record in the sixth game.

Best Bet of the Week So Far

We picked Illinois last week against Wisconsin, even though the Illini were a 6.5-point road underdog. That loss was the last straw for the Wisconsin administration as they fired coach Paul Cryst the next day. 

I think the Badgers will bounce back with a huge effort this week. Supporting a bet on Wisconsin is this situational betting angle that has earned a 62-29-7 ATS record, good for 68% winning bets over the last 15 seasons. 

The requirements are to bet on road teams averaging 5.75 or more yards per play and coming off a game in which they gained 3.80 or fewer yards per play. 

If it's a matchup of conference rivals, the road team has earned a 51-24-3 ATS record, good for 68% winning bets over the last 10 seasons and every season has had profitable results.

Don’t Forget to Watch the Videos

Check out our two-minute videos featuring betting systems in college football that hit 65% ATS and higher with few losing record seasons. Take advantage of that free content and sports betting resource.