NFL 2022: What We Learned in Week 3
After just three weeks of results, the NFL has two undefeated teams in the Philadelphia Eagles (3-0 straight-up, 2-1 against the spread) and the Miami Dolphins (3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS).
The NFL futures market has seen more significant line movements and betting volume for the NFC and AFC conference matchups and ultimate winners, moving the Eagles to a +800 favorite to win the NFC ahead of the previous favorites Tampa Buccaneers and the Green Bay Packers.
There have been six NFL seasons since 1989, when there were just two undefeated teams heading into Week 4. The last time it happened was in the 2017-18 season. The Eagles won the Super Bowl with backup quarterback Nick Foles leading the offense.
In 2014, there was one undefeated team, the Eagles, who ended the regular season at 10-6 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, including an 11-5 Over-Under record and failed to make the playoffs.
In 2001-02 no team was undefeated heading into Week 4, the only time since 1989.
The second to last time the NFL had just two undefeated teams heading into Week 4 was 2010, and it was the Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS) and Chicago Bears (11-5 SU, 9-6-1 ATS).
Both teams advanced to their respective conference championship game, with the Bears losing to the Packers (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) and the Steelers defeating the New York Jets (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) 24-19 and covering the spread as 4-point favorites.
The Steelers lost to the Packers in the Super Bowl as 2.5- point underdogs by the final score of 31-25.
What Else Did We Learn About the NFL in Week 3?
Through three weeks of NFL games, underdogs have gone 21-26-1 SU, 31-15-2 ATS for 67% winning bets and 18-30 Over-Under, good for 63% winning Under bets.
Home underdogs are 10-11-1 SU, 15-6-1 ATS for 71% winning bets, and a solid 6-16 Over-Under record, good for 73% winning Under bets.
Home favorites are 15-11 SU, 9-16-1 ATS for 64% winners, including a 12-14 Over-Under record, good for 54% winning Under bets.
Home teams lined between the 3s (between a 3-point favorite and a 3-point underdog) are 12-11 SU and 10-11-2 ATS, including a 7-16 Over-Under record for 70% winning Under bets.
Highly Profitable Situational Trends and Angles for Week 4
The New York Jets are 0-13 SU, 1-12 ATS, including 4-9 Over-Under following back-to-back games in which they attempted at least 40 passes in games played since 1996.
The Titans are 7-12 SU, 5-13-1 ATS, including 9-9-1 Over-Under record following a game in which they converted 50% or more of their third down situations and held their previous opponent to less than 30% third down conversions.
The Super Bowl loser (Bengals) from the previous season in games played in Week 4 is 7-10 SU, 5-12 ATS, including 10-7 Over-Under record. If favored, they are 3-5 SU, 1-7 ATS and 2-8 Over-Under.
The Super Bowl winner (Rams) from the previous season is 15-4 SU, 9-9-1 ATS, including a 13-6 Over-Under record in Week 4.
Teams with 35% or fewer of the betting tickets bet on them have gone 9-4 ATS this season.
Teams with 35% or less of the money bet on them are 17-9 ATS this season.
Teams that had 10% or more of the money bet versus the number of tickets bet on them have gone a highly profitable 19-7-1 ATS for 73% winning bets this season.
The Chargers are 12-6 SU, 12-5-1 ATS, and 12-6 Over-Under coming off two consecutive games in which their defense allowed more points than the opponent's total betting line.
The Commanders are 1-9 SU 1-8-1 ATS, and 2-6-2 Over-Under when coming off a game in which they allowed seven or more sacks.
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