NFL Picks: Can the Lions Steal a Road Win in Dallas?

NFL Picks: Can the Lions Steal a Road Win in Dallas?
© USA Today

Here is my Week 7 NFL betting advice. I will take these picks to the window.

Detroit at Dallas

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Line: Cowboys –7 | Total: 49 points

The Detroit Lions (1-4 straight-up, 3-2 against the spread, 3-2 Over-Under) are coming off a bye week and are on the road to face an NFC foe, the Dallas Cowboys (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 2-4 Over-Under).

Road dogs like the Lions of 3.5 to 7.5 points that are coming off their bye week have earned a 20-12 ATS record, good for 63% winning bets since 2015. 

Situational Trends and Angles

Professional sports bettors look for contrarian opportunities that feature a struggling road team. The following situational trends and angles support a betting opportunity on the Lions.

  • The Lions are 26-10 ATS when on the road and coming off a loss of 14 or more points.
  • The Lions are 7-0 ATS when on the road and coming off a double-digit loss in games played over the last two seasons.

I am betting on the Lions +7 points as offered at BetMGM.

New York Jets at Denver 

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

Line: Jets -1 | Total: 38.5 points
 

The upstart New York Jets (4-2 SU, 3-1-1 ATS, 1-4 Over-Under) will take their winning momentum out West to take on the struggling Denver Broncos (2-4 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 Over-Under). 

The Broncos have shut out the Jets in each of their last two home meetings but are going to find a significantly better Jets squad this time around. 

The Baltimore Ravens from 1999-2001 were the last NFL team to post three straight home shutouts, doing so over the divisional rival Cincinnati Bengals. The Pittsburgh Steelers shut out the Seattle Seahawks in 2007, but the second meeting did not take place until 2011. Even more remarkable is that the last team to pull this off was in the 1930s, when the Detroit Lions did it against the Brooklyn Dodgers.

I see the Jets winning this game potentially by double digits and believe they are nowhere near their full performance level yet this season. 

Situational Trends and Angles
 

The following situational trends and angles support a betting opportunity on the Over 38.5 points.

  • Teams that were shut out in their previous matchup in a season that is not the current season are 17-7-1 Over for 71% winning bets.
  • The Broncos are 53-36-3 Over, good for 60% winning bets after having lost four or five of their last six games.
  • Teams like the Jets that have lost their last two meetings to the current foe and were shut out in the last meeting are 28-17 Over for 62% winning bets

I am betting the Over 38.5 points at BetMGM.

Other Games I like Against the Spread

Bet on the Titans pick-em at home over the Colts.

Bet the Bucs -13 on the road over the Panthers.

Other NFL Betting Options for this Week

These are My Live Betting Picks

Chiefs vs. 49ers 

As you can tell from the videos published on Twitter, I like the Under quite a bit, and here is an alternative betting strategy to consider for that game. 

Bet 65% of your normal bet size on the Under pre-flop and then look for both teams to start off faster than expected and add 25% at 52.5 points and then 10% at 55.5 during the first half of action only.

These Are My Moneyline Bet Picks

Bet the Lions +230 over the Cowboys.

Bet the Jets +280 over the Broncos.

These Are My Over-Under Bet Picks

Over Giants vs. Jaguars 43 points -110

Over Jets vs.Broncos 38  points -110

Over Browns vs. Ravens 45.5 points -110

These Are My Best Prop Bet Picks

For the season, player prop bets are 33-21 for 61% winning bets, making $983 per $50 bet.

Remember, sports betting is a marathon, not a get-rich scheme for one weekend. There will be losing weeks here on these pages, and although I have had nine profitable seasons in the past 10, there is no guarantee I will hit 65% ATS again this season.

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