Top 6 Baseball Betting Stats

SHARE

Top 6 Baseball Betting Stats

Baseball betting is one of few pursuits that gives gamblers the luxury of examining the numbers both before and during a game. However it's vital to know exactly where to look when you're placing your bets.

Below is a list of the top six statistics to consider when betting baseball:

1. Win Percentages

In most sports, the headline stat is the one that's most likely to help you pick a winner. In baseball, it's one that reminds you how hard it is to pick a winner.

In the 2014 MLB regular season, even the side with the best form in the entire regular season, the Los Angeles Angels, only won 60.5% of their games. In contrast, the worst performance, by the Arizona Diamondbacks, saw them register a win percentage of 39.5%. However, this kind of consistency (for better or worse) is rare, and the majority of the teams won between 46% and 56% of their games.

2. Backing Favourites Loses Money

What the win percentage stats appear to tell us is that underdogs regularly win and can be worth backing in the 'match winner' market. Whether or not that's a valid strategy may require a bit more testing however.

Thankfully, such testing has been done. A seven-year study found that gamblers who deployed a strategy of backing only the favourites would have lost more than four times as much money as one who only backed the underdog. Bear in mind though that this stat also shows how solely backing the underdog ends in a flat loss too. For this reason, it's vital to find ways to use all the stats at hand to make a wise choice in the 'match winner' market.

3. Divisional Underdogs Perform Better

The same study provides one useful filter for choosing which underdogs to back in the 'match winner' market; in divisional games, the underdog won 3414 divisional games and lost 4513 over the seven year period and, most importantly, would have showed a profit to consistent backers. In contrast, non-divisional and interleague underdogs won 4401 and lost 6434, leaving their backers firmly in the red.

As well as being potentially useful in forming a strategy, this stat is a reminder that spotting simple trends can sometimes make a big difference to returns.

4. Galvanising Games

Two more areas identified as having an impact on underdog performance were hot streaks, i.e. coming into a game after a win, and shutouts, coming into a game after a match in which they failed to register a run. The reasons behind these increases in profitability are vastly different, but equally important.

The former is a common exercise in sporting psychology. Whether it's the confidence boost of a victory, the unity of the team, or the increased 'fear factor' in the opponent, the chances of carrying a victory over are higher than turning a defeat into a win. The latter is all about bookies' odds calculations. If a team has been shutout, their next opponent becomes an even greater favourite, with shorter odds, while the team that suffered the shutout will get much longer odds. And that means you need proportionally fewer wins to register a profit.

5. Earned Run Average (ERA)

One of the game's big stats, the ERA reflects the average number of runs a team's pitchers allows an opponent. But the first thing to note is that this isn't a stat that directly correlates with victories. In the 2014 MLB regular season, the Los Angeles Angels only managed an ERA of 3.58, placing them 15th in the league. Nowhere near where you'd expect the top performing team of the season.

Where it is useful is in the 'runs scored' and 'run line' markets, where identifying a measly (or overly generous) defensive side will make the difference in total runs scored and the gap between the two teams.

6. Batting Averages

Similarly useful for determining the scale of a game's scoreline is the batting average, which tells us the average number of hits a team's batters get while at bat.

However, the 2014 season saw the Colorado Rockies claim second place in the batting averages, but only register a win percentage of 40.7%. So it's vital to ensure that those hits come to something before factoring the stat into your betting calculations. A quick glance at the runs stat will confirm or deny your suspicion. In this instance, the Rockies were indeed great scorers - it was their ERA of 4.84 (worst in the league) that let them down.

To test your knowledge of the latest baseball betting markets, and for all the most up-to-date odds, visit Paddy Power Sports today!

Recommended Betting Sites

Betting Strategy Articles


Find Value Betting the Champions League Quarters 2nd Legs
Find Value Betting the Champions League Quarters 2nd Legs

Football fans have another feast of Champions League football to look forward to with the second legs of the quarter-finals about to take place. Juventus, Monaco, Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid have ... Read More

Check Out the Best Bets of the Snooker Championship 2017
Check Out the Best Bets of the Snooker Championship 2017

This year marks the 90th anniversary of the first ever World Snooker Championship, won by English snooker legend Joe Davis. But long gone are the days of Davis as stars like Ronnie O’Sullivan, Mark Se ... Read More

Warriors are Favourites but Experts Suggest Backing Cavs
Warriors are Favourites but Experts Suggest Backing Cavs

It's that time of year again, when the NBA's finest reach for more than hoops in a bid to make it through the playoffs and towards championship glory. As ever, the lead up to the NBA playoffs has been ... Read More

Betting Tips for the Champions League Quarter Final 1st Legs
Betting Tips for the Champions League Quarter Final 1st Legs

The competition began with 32 teams, now just eight sides remain in this season’s UEFA Champions League. After a four-week break, football’s premier club competition returns for the first legs of four ... Read More

Finding Long Bets for the Grand National 2017
Finding Long Bets for the Grand National 2017

The Randox Health Grand National Steeple Race is the highlight of the season at Aintree, taking place on Saturday 8 April. This betting preview will tell you everything you need to know about the odds ... Read More

Johnson’s Odds After Fall Could Mean Big Payout at Masters
Johnson’s Odds After Fall Could Mean Big Payout at Masters

As the 2017 edition of The Masters tees off this week at Augusta, intrigue abounds. Can Willett repeat his last year's performance? How will Spieth respond to being back at Augusta? Will Dustin Johnso ... Read More

Betting Navigation

Newsletter

Sign up for the free Gambling.com Newsletter to stay on top of all the best bonuses!
We will never share or misuse your personal information. Privacy Policy

Latest Betting Strategy

BettingGuides

Country Guide