NFL Individual Awards Betting Guide: How to Bet MVP, OPOY, DPOY and Rookie Awards
If you're interested in NFL betting, you've probably scoured every preview available. You've read the playbooks, listened to podcasts, and still can't decide whether to back a heavy favorite or the sleeper you fancy.
If that's proved too much, maybe you should consider NFL individual awards markets. There are several types, ranging from NFL MVP honors to Rookie of the Year awards.
Here's a breakdown of the trends to watch when betting on each one:
MVP | Offensive Player of the Year | Defensive Player of the Year | Offensive Rookie of the Year | Defensive Rookie of the Year
How to Bet on the NFL MVP
Other than winning the Super Bowl, being named NFL MVP is the next best thing, though most winners would readily trade the trophy for a Lombardi Trophy. The award is voted on by the media at the conclusion of the regular season and announced at NFL Honors the night before the Super Bowl.
One thing has not changed: it's essentially a quarterback-only award.
The last non-quarterback to win was Adrian Peterson in 2012. The last defensive player to win was Lawrence Taylor in 1986. Every MVP since 2016 has been a quarterback: Matt Ryan, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers (twice), Mahomes again, Jackson again, Josh Allen, and Matthew Stafford, who won the 2025 award after a remarkable season with the Los Angeles Rams.
The last five MVP winners:
- 2025: QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
- 2024: QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
- 2023: QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
- 2022: QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
- 2021: QB Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
☞ MVP Betting Tip: Find a quarterback who will likely lead a top-seed contender. Of the last 10 winners, nine finished first or second in their conference.
Allen's 2024 win came with the Bills finishing as a top AFC seed. Jackson's 2023 award came while leading the Ravens to the league's best record. Stafford's 2025 win came with the Rams as a dominant NFC contender.
As a rule, the MVP needs to be carrying a team deep into playoff contention, not just posting big numbers on a middling squad.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year Betting
The Offensive Player of the Year award often goes to a non-quarterback, making it one of the more interesting markets to separate from the MVP race. The last quarterback to win OPOY was Mahomes in 2018; every winner since then has been a skill player at a different position.
Recent winners have split between wide receivers and running backs, with no quarterback breaking through in seven straight seasons. If a quarterback is going to win MVP, someone else is almost certainly going to win OPOY. Look for elite running backs and wide receivers on playoff-caliber teams as the most reliable betting targets.
The last five Offensive Player of the Year winners:
- 2025: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
- 2024: RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
- 2023: RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
- 2022: WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
- 2021: WR Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
☞ OPOY Betting Tip: Team success matters here. Every winner from the past five seasons played for a team with at least 11 wins.
Barkley won it as part of the Eagles' Super Bowl run. McCaffrey won it with the 49ers as one of the NFC's top seeds. Jefferson won it despite the Vikings not being a true contender, but his historic statistical season (1,809 yards) made him impossible to ignore.
Find a skill player on a winning team putting up dominant numbers; that combination drives this award.
NFL Defensive Player of the Year Betting
The DPOY award has been dominated by pass-rushers in recent years, though that's not an absolute rule. Between T.J. Watt, Nick Bosa, Myles Garrett (twice), and Aaron Donald (three times before them), edge defenders and defensive linemen have owned this award.
However, cornerback Patrick Surtain II broke the streak in 2024, the first DB to win since Stephon Gilmore in 2019.
The last five Defensive Player of the Year winners:
- 2025: DE Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns
- 2024: CB Patrick Surtain II, Denver Broncos
- 2023: DE Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns
- 2022: DE Nick Bosa, San Francisco 49ers
- 2021: LB T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers
☞ DPOY Betting Tip: Sacks still matter, but they don't decide the award on their own. Trey Hendrickson led the NFL in sacks in 2024 and didn't win. What wins is a dominant season from a player on a winning defense, at a position that affects every snap.
Edge defenders and pass rushers are still the safest betting targets; Garrett, Parsons, Watt, and Bosa will be perennial candidates until they retire. But the occasional DB or linebacker can break through if the performance is historically dominant.
Check each team's projected win total: DPOY winners almost always come from playoff-caliber defenses.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Betting
The OROY award has shown a clear positional rotation in recent years: two wide receivers won back-to-back in 2021 and 2022, then two quarterbacks won back-to-back in 2023 and 2024, before a wide receiver won again in 2025.
The last five Offensive Rookie of the Year winners:
- 2025: WR Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers
- 2024: QB Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
- 2023: QB C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
- 2022: WR Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
- 2021: WR Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
☞ OROY Betting Tip: Draft position remains the clearest filter. Only two of the last 21 OROY winners were drafted outside the first round, and it's been seven consecutive years of first-round picks winning.
No offensive lineman or tight end has ever won the award; it's exclusively quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers. Quarterbacks have won the award in eight of the last 15 seasons, making them a strong default target when a consensus top-prospect QB lands on a team that will start him immediately.
If no quarterback stands out, look for a wide receiver with an elite target share opportunity on an offense that needs production in Year 1.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Betting
The DROY award has gone to a different position in each of the last four years—linebacker, cornerback, defensive end, defensive end—reflecting the broad range of ways a rookie defender can make an immediate impact.
The last five Defensive Rookie of the Year winners:
- 2025: LB Carson Schwesinger, Cleveland Browns
- 2024: DE Jared Verse, Los Angeles Rams
- 2023: DE Will Anderson Jr., Houston Texans
- 2022: CB Sauce Gardner, New York Jets
- 2021: LB Micah Parsons, Dallas Cowboys
☞ DROY Betting Tip: Like its offensive counterpart, this is overwhelmingly a first-round pick's award; only two of the last 21 DROY winners were drafted outside Round 1.
Pass-rushers remain a strong default, given their immediate statistical impact and visibility. But as Gardner (2022) and Schwesinger (2025) showed, a cornerback or linebacker who dominates from Day 1 on a winning defense can break through.
Team context matters: defenders on teams that allow opponents to pass frequently will rack up the stats that drive DROY voting.
Key Variables to Consider Across All NFL Awards Markets
Regardless of which individual award market you're betting, a few principles apply across the board.
- Games played: All markets are vulnerable to injury. Build in the assumption that players miss at least a game or two, and don't automatically bet overs on season-long totals. Injury history matters.
- Team strength: Nearly every award winner in recent memory played for a team that made the playoffs. A great individual season on a 5-12 team is almost always overlooked by voters. Cross-check each candidate's odds against their team's projected win total.
- Division and playing conditions: For statistical awards, especially note which teams play in domes or warm-weather climates (AFC/NFC South divisions in particular) versus those that play in cold-weather outdoor stadiums late in the season. Wind, rain, and snow can suppress passing and rushing totals, shifting award races.
- Storyline: Media voters are human, and they're drawn to compelling narratives. A player carrying a team above expectations, setting records, or overcoming adversity is always a dangerous dark-horse pick in any awards market.
