2025 Politics Betting Odds: Seven Things That Could Happen This Year

UK betting sites are gearing up for a big year in politics and are offering odds on plenty of possible outcomes in 2025.

From Keir Starmer’s job security and Donald Trump’s chances of impeachment, to odds on Nigel Farage and the Irish presidential election race – there’s a lot going on this year.

If you thought 2024 was a blockbuster year for politics, then 2025 could be just as spectacular. There is already speculation on how the UK’s political parties will shape up by the end of the year. 

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Europe is braced for a string of big elections, while the Trump White House is bound to cause controversy.

But what are the political bets that carry true value in 2025? 

We've crunched the odds, looked at the probabilities and ranked the top seven political bets that could happen this year.

We’ve also included one absolute dead cert – see if you can spot it!

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Bettors accurately predicted Donald Trump would crush Kamala Harris in the 2024 US election, and refused to follow the polls in betting that the Conservatives would be wiped out at the UK election last year.

Odds from political betting sites can be translated into percentage probability, which makes it a lot easier for punters to gauge whether there’s value in a bet.

For example, Trump was considered to have less than a 13% chance of winning the 2016 presidential election, with the polls heavily backing Hillary Clinton. 

Punters threw their weight behind Trump and pushed his odds to around 15/8 (35%) on the eve of that election. They were proved right.

2025 could hold a few surprises in politics, so it’s important for punters to assess markets and consider the value of each possible bet.

With that in mind, here are six bets we reckon carry value, plus a dead cert.

Starmer Exit in 2025

We regularly update our Keir Starmer exit date page with the latest odds on the Labour leader. 

He begins 2025 under intense pressure with Labour supporters not happy with his decision to withhold public spending and Conservatives demanding more cuts. Meanwhile, Reform UK is growing in popularity.

Starmer is 9/4 to lose his job in 2025. That’s close to a one-in-three chance, which is remarkable when you consider the majority he commands in the House of Commons.

But there is a reason for the bookies to slash his odds. The country is going through an economic downturn and Labour was elected on the promise to sort out the UK’s finances. 

If chancellor Rachel Reeves can’t offer some hope by the spring, then pressure will grow on Starmer.

His job is not safe, especially with Trump in the White House and Farage’s popularity surging.

Badenoch No Confidence Vote

Starmer isn’t the only one under pressure. Kemi Badenoch has the unenviable job of leading a Conservative party in opposition. Reform now has more members than the Tories and Badenoch hasn’t stemmed the tide of defectors just yet.

She can challenge Starmer all she likes at PMQs but her party is going through an identity crisis that can’t be fixed quickly.

Badenoch needs to figure out where her party sits on the optical spectrum. Defeat at the ballot box in 2024 was chastening, with Reform pinching the Tories from the right and Labour covering the centre ground. The new leader needs to make her party relevant again.

But will she be given the time to do it? Tory MPs are notoriously cut throat and they could seek a No Confidence Vote in Badenoch if the party continues to linger in obscurity. 

Like Starmer, a lot will depend on how the chips fall with the Trump presidency and Reform. Ladbrokes have her at 9/4 (30.8%) to face a No Confidence Vote in 2025.

Three Or Four UK By-Elections

The UK usually holds a handful of by-elections each year and there is reason to believe 2025 could have three or four.

For context, there were no by-elections in the year following the 2019 general election (largely due to COVID-19), just two the year after the 2017 general election, but eight in the wake of the 2025 general election, where Brexit played a role.

UK politics has become a lot more volatile since the Brexit referendum and MPs are more willing to step down. There’s also been a spate of political scandals since 2016 that have forced some MPs out.

In 2025 it’s possible to see Tory defections to Reform. There will almost certainly be a couple of sleaze scandals too, which could open up seats. 

Ladbrokes offer a price of 7/2 (22.2%) on there being three or four by-elections this year. That feels like a good level with so much chaos expected over the next 12 months.

Three Or More MPs Defect To Reform

By-elections don’t have to be held when an MP defects to another party. 

There is therefore quite a high possibility that MPs choose to cross the chamber rather than resign their post. This could well help Reform UK recruit a few more MPs before the year is out.

Reform are on a recruitment drive for new members but also parliamentarians. There’s speculation they could lure Tories who become disenfranchised with Badenoch’s leadership.

Labour are not immune from defections either. The odds on Reform picking up three defected MPs this year sit at 2/1 with Ladbrokes, which is a fairly good price.

Defections could come towards the end of the year if pressure mounts on Starmer and Badenoch. If there’s outright revolt in either party, then some will see it as the opportune moment to jump ship without surrendering their constituency.

Donald Trump Impeached

Away from the UK, there is intense focus on US political betting now that Trump is back in the White House. 

Ladbrokes offer 8/1 (11.1%) on Trump being impeached this year. While it’s improbable, it’s still possible.

Could Trump be impeached this year? The Republicans have a majority in the House and Senate, with both chambers packed with Trump loyalists. There would need to be something utterly spectacular for the GOP to turn on their leader.

Only a political scandal or a gross dereliction of duty would force MAGA Republicans into impeaching Trump. 

How the president handles Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or the conflict in the Middle East could potentially lead to something here. But in reality it would be a scandal of Trump’s own making that causes the house of cards to fall so rapidly.

Michael McDowell To Be Irish President

Irish politics began 2025 in utter confusion over the make-up of the Dail and, in turn, who would be taoiseach. Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have formed a government with the support of a handful of independents.

Whether the new government holds or not remains to be seen – but rumbling along in the background is the upcoming Irish presidential election too.

Michael D. Higgins is stepping down and the bookies have a raft of viable names for the role. 

This includes Fianna Fail’s former taoiseach Bertie Ahern (7/1), Fine Gael’s ex-tanaiste Frances Fitzgerald (12/1) and comedian Tommy Tiernan (16/1).

Yet the Irish presidential battle looks likely to be a bout between Fine Gael’s Mairead McGuinness and outside shot Michael McDowell. McGuinness leads the polls with 34.8% of Irish voters preferring her. 

Then comes McDowell, who has seen his odds with BoyleSports drop from 18/1 to 10/1 in recent weeks.

Sinn Fein's Mary Lou McDonald once led this market but some bookies now have her out at 50/1.

We’re tipping McDowell here partially because his odds carry value and partially because he’s an independent. McGuinness could lose votes if the public turn on Fine Gael during the early months of the new Dáil.

Conservatives Win Canadian Election

Finally, it’s time for a dead cert. 

The Conservatives are steamrolling towards election victory in Canada in 2025. The Liberals have lost their leader Justin Trudeau and it’s unlikely that his replacement will eradicate their poll deficit.

Trudeau’s exit has already helped the Liberals. Their poll rating rose from 20.8% to 31.7% off the back of the news.

However, William Hill still reckon Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives will claim the most seats and form a government, at 1/20.