Adam Caplan's NFL Daily Fantasy Top Plays for Week 16
Well, it’s finally here.
Fantasy football championship week is upon us and congratulations to those of you who made it this far.
And in DFS, you’re nearing the end of your season, though next week will present some interesting challenges and scenarios that you can take advantage of.
This week’s recommendations are mostly matchup-based and by the numbers, though a few of them are more about gut feelings than anything else, which always comes into play when putting my lineups in.
I typically use the last four weeks’ worth of data when making decisions, which really gives you the most reliable recent information for matchup purposes.
And with that, it’s on to Week 16!
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Week 16 Quarterback Best Bet
Drew Brees = $8,400 at FanDuel
Matchup: New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
I know fantasy owners were perplexed with what they saw last week from the veteran signal caller, but things should be different this week.
Brees will be playing at home where his numbers are much better historically. For whatever reason, playing indoors and in front of a home crowd seems to help him.
While the Steelers defense has improved after a very poor start, they still are too inconsistent against average quarterbacks or better (have given up at least 2 TD passes in 3 out of their last 4 games) and normally don’t play well against good passers on the road.
While Brees has seen a reduction in productivity lately (last 3 games were on the road), he hasn’t had a game at home this season with fewer than 2 TD passes. So, look for him to bounce back this week in what could be a high-scoring game.
Week 16 Running Back Best Bet
Nick Chubb = $7,900 at FanDuel
Matchup: Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals
I’ve had the rookie running back in this space a few times and he rarely has disappointed. Even when he doesn’t score, he seems to put up good numbers together on the ground.
Since the trade of veteran RB Carlos Hyde, Chubb has taken over as the starter and isn’t sharing the ball very much. Over his last eight games, Chubb has only had 1 game where he didn’t have at least 18 touches.
In his first game against the division rival Bengals, Chubb had a whopping 31 touches for 128 total yards and two TDs.
And the even better news is that the Bengals defense is giving up over 28 fantasy points per game over its last four to go along with giving up over 4.4 yards per carry and 5 total TDs.
Look for another solid game against the suspect Bengal defense from Chubb.
Week 16 Wide Receiver Best Bets
Josh Reynolds = $5,300 at FanDuel
Matchup: Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Here’s a guy that seems to benefit from going up against struggling pass defenses. The second-year pass catcher came within inches of scoring last week against the visiting Eagles while being targeted 12 times.
His role has continued to increase after the team lost slot WR Cooper Kupp for the season due to injury. Reynolds will play on the outside when the team is in their 3-WR alignment, which is their primary formation each game.
Reynolds, who runs well and has good size, typically sees a backup cornerback and rarely the opponent’s top cover player, so it’s hard to imagine veteran CB Patrick Peterson will see him much in coverage.
The Cardinals defense is giving up about 38 points per game over its last four to opposing wide receivers, so Reynolds figures to have a really good shot to produce good numbers as your No. 3 WR or flex option this week.
Robbie Anderson = $5,900 at FanDuel
Matchup: New York Jets vs. Green Bay Packers
After battling ankle and foot injuries for several weeks, the third-year pass catcher has really come on in recent weeks. Over his last two games, Anderson has totaled 11 receptions, 172 yards (over 15.6 yards per catch), and 2 TDs. And he clearly has good chemistry with rookie QB Sam Darnold.
This week, Anderson will face a Packers defense which has given up an average of over 36 points per game over its last four. Some of that is due to injury, and it’s a situation which isn’t going to improve much until after the season, as many key players on that defensive side of the ball are on IR.
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Week 16 Tight End Best Bet
Eric Ebron = $6,100 at FanDuel
Matchup: Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Giants
Because Ebron didn’t practice Wednesday, his salary, despite the breakout season he’s having, is pretty reasonable. It’s also possible since he only had one reception last week that his salary isn’t high as expected. But the good news is that he’s on target to play Sunday against the visiting Giants.
Ebron, who should be no worse than Andrew Luck’s second pass target this week, faces a Giants defense that’s giving up over 12 points per game to opposing tight ends over their last four.
With TE Jack Doyle out for the rest of the season, Ebron is pretty much all they have left at the tight end in terms of pass catchers, so start him with confidence this week.
Week 16 Flex Best Bet
Dalvin Cook = $7,100 at FanDuel
Matchup: Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
New Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski clearly took head coach Mike Zimmer’s mandate to make a stronger commitment to run the ball to heart.
In Stefanski’s first game calling plays last week against the visiting Dolphins, Viking running backs totaled 34 carries, which is a significant increase per game for that position this season. You can expect the same commitment this week on the road against the Lions.
While the Lions run defense has improved of late (4.09 yards per carry over their last four games against opposing running backs), you can expect Cook to see at least 20 touches in this game (same total as last week).
And with Cook clearly over his previously lingering hamstring issue, he’s primed to continue his large workload going forward (at least 17 touches per game over his last 3).
Adam Caplan's NFL Week 16 FanDuel Lineup
|QB||Drew Brees||Saints vs. Steelers||$8,400|
|RB||Ezekiel Elliott||Cowboys vs. Buccaneers||$8,800|
|RB||Nick Chubb||Browns vs. Bengals||$7,900|
|WR||Julian Edelman||Patriots vs. Bills||$7,000|
|WR||Josh Reynolds||Rams @ Cardinals||$5,300|
|WR||Robbie Anderson||Jets vs. Packers||$5,900|
|TE||Eric Ebron||Colts vs. Giants||$6,100|
|FLEX||Dalvin Cook||Vikings @ Lions||$7,100|
|D||New Orleans Saints||Saints vs. Steelers||$3,500|
Play this lineup at FanDuel.
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