NFL Playoff Betting Strategy Focusing On Quarterbacks, Defense, Kickers
As NFL teams prepare for the playoffs, bettors are predicting which ones will make a deep run toward the next Super Bowl. The playoffs begin Jan. 11, and the Super Bowl is set for Feb. 9 in Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.
As for strategies at NFL betting sites, when veteran bettor Billy Walters wagers on football games, he places a premium on quarterbacks, defense and kickers.
Last year, Walters’ book “Gambler: Secrets from a Life at Risk” was released, covering his Kentucky childhood and later exploits, including his experiences in Las Vegas and elsewhere.
In the book, Walters also lays out his intricate betting strategies. During a book tour earlier this year, he explained his approach to football betting in simple terms, focusing on the sports’ fundamentals.
“At the end of the day, quarterbacks are the most important thing in handicapping any football game,” he said during the book tour, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal. “Defense, that’s the second-most important thing for my money. And kickers.”
Check Injuries, Player Status
Below is an early look at the Billy Walters quarterbacks-defense-kickers formula.
For instance, the Cincinnati Bengals’ Joe Burrow is the top quarterback in passing yardage (4,641) and touchdown passes (42), but his team needs a lot to happen in the final week of the regular season to make the playoffs.
Also, an examination of just one category (passing yardage, yards surrendered on defense, percentage of field goals made) won’t necessarily tell the full story. Other statistics and unforeseen circumstances, such as injuries, could alter a bettor’s strategy by the time the Super Bowl rolls around.
Individual statistics are also skewed by games played. For example, Atlanta quarterback Kirk Cousins was benched late in the season, with the Falcons inserting rookie Michael Penix Jr. into the starting lineup. When considering bets for the playoffs and Super Bowl, check for injury updates and other player status reports.
Top Performers
Below are rankings based on one category under each heading going into the final week of regular season play. Shown are teams already in the playoffs or still in contention.
Quarterbacks
Player | Team | Passing Yds |
---|---|---|
Joe Burrow | Bengals | 4,641 |
Jared Goff | Lions | 4,095 |
Lamar Jackson | Ravens | 3,955 |
Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | 3,928 |
Baker Mayfield | Buccaneers | 3,920 |
Sam Darnold | Vikings | 3,776 |
Matthew Stafford | Rams | 3,762 |
C.J. Stroud | Texans | 3,677 |
Josh Allen | Bills | 3,549 |
Justin Herbert | Chargers | 3,524 |
Kirk Cousins | Falcons | 3,508 |
Bo Nix | Broncos | 3,454 |
Jayden Daniels | Commanders | 3,303 |
Jordan Love | Packers | 3,135 |
Jalen Hurts | Eagles | 2,903 |
Tua Tagovailoa | Dolphins | 2,867 |
Russell Wilson | Steelers | 2,334 |
Source: USA Today
Defense
Below is a list of NFL defenses and their yards allowed per game:
- Philadelphia Eagles: 280.1
- Miami Dolphins: 310.5
- Kansas City Chiefs: 310.8
- Houston Texans: 315.1
- Green Bay Packers: 321.4
- Washington Commanders: 323.8
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 327.5
- Los Angeles Chargers: 328.1
- Baltimore Ravens: 330.1
- Denver Broncos: 330.8
- Minnesota Vikings: 331.8
- Detroit Lions: 338.9
- Atlanta Falcons: 340.2
- Buffalo Bills: 343.6
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 344.9
- Los Angeles Rams: 354.2
- Cincinnati Bengals: 358.0
Source: ESPN
Kicking
Player | Team | FG % |
---|---|---|
Cameron Dicker | Chargers | 94.6% |
Brandon McManus | Packers | 94.4% |
Chase McLaughlin | Buccaneers | 93.3% |
Chris Boswell | Steelers | 93% |
Will Lutz | Broncos | 90.9% |
Austin Seibert (injured) | Commanders | 90% |
Jason Sanders | Dolphins | 89.7% |
Jake Bates | Lions | 88.5% |
Harrison Butker (injured) | Chiefs | 87.5% |
Ka'imi Fairbairn | Texans | 85.4% |
Joshua Karty | Rams | 83.3% |
Tyler Bass | Bills | 82.1% |
Will Reichard | Vikings | 80.8% |
Jake Elliot | Eagles | 80% |
Source: USA Today
Be first to get our exclusive sports offers!
Join today to stay up to date on your states gambling news and offers.