NFL Playoff Betting Strategy Focusing On Quarterbacks, Defense, Kickers

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As NFL teams prepare for the playoffs, bettors are predicting which ones will make a deep run toward the next Super Bowl. The playoffs begin Jan. 11, and the Super Bowl is set for Feb. 9 in Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

As for strategies at NFL betting sites, when veteran bettor Billy Walters wagers on football games, he places a premium on quarterbacks, defense and kickers.

Last year, Walters’ book “Gambler: Secrets from a Life at Risk” was released, covering his Kentucky childhood and later exploits, including his experiences in Las Vegas and elsewhere.

In the book, Walters also lays out his intricate betting strategies. During a book tour earlier this year, he explained his approach to football betting in simple terms, focusing on the sports’ fundamentals.

“At the end of the day, quarterbacks are the most important thing in handicapping any football game,” he said during the book tour, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal. “Defense, that’s the second-most important thing for my money. And kickers.”

Check Injuries, Player Status

Below is an early look at the Billy Walters quarterbacks-defense-kickers formula.

For instance, the Cincinnati Bengals’ Joe Burrow is the top quarterback in passing yardage (4,641) and touchdown passes (42), but his team needs a lot to happen in the final week of the regular season to make the playoffs.

Also, an examination of just one category (passing yardage, yards surrendered on defense, percentage of field goals made) won’t necessarily tell the full story. Other statistics and unforeseen circumstances, such as injuries, could alter a bettor’s strategy by the time the Super Bowl rolls around.

Individual statistics are also skewed by games played. For example, Atlanta quarterback Kirk Cousins was benched late in the season, with the Falcons inserting rookie Michael Penix Jr. into the starting lineup. When considering bets for the playoffs and Super Bowl, check for injury updates and other player status reports.

Top Performers

Below are rankings based on one category under each heading going into the final week of regular season play. Shown are teams already in the playoffs or still in contention.

Quarterbacks

PlayerTeamPassing Yds
Joe BurrowBengals4,641
Jared GoffLions4,095
Lamar JacksonRavens3,955
Patrick MahomesChiefs3,928
Baker MayfieldBuccaneers3,920
Sam DarnoldVikings3,776
Matthew StaffordRams3,762
C.J. StroudTexans3,677
Josh AllenBills3,549
Justin HerbertChargers3,524
Kirk CousinsFalcons3,508
Bo NixBroncos3,454
Jayden DanielsCommanders3,303
Jordan LovePackers3,135
Jalen HurtsEagles2,903
Tua TagovailoaDolphins2,867
Russell WilsonSteelers2,334

Source: USA Today

Defense

Below is a list of NFL defenses and their yards allowed per game:

Source: ESPN

Kicking

PlayerTeamFG %
Cameron DickerChargers94.6%
Brandon McManusPackers94.4%
Chase McLaughlinBuccaneers93.3%
Chris BoswellSteelers93%
Will LutzBroncos90.9%
Austin Seibert (injured)Commanders90%
Jason SandersDolphins89.7%
Jake BatesLions88.5%
Harrison Butker (injured)Chiefs87.5%
Ka'imi FairbairnTexans85.4%
Joshua KartyRams83.3%
Tyler BassBills82.1%
Will ReichardVikings80.8%
Jake ElliotEagles80%

Source: USA Today

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