National League Cy Young July Betting Tips, Picks, Analysis
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Since we last checked in on the NL Cy Young odds, the player ranked third moved up to second, and a new third odds-on favorite emerged. Unfortunately, Clayton Kershaw, who was second in odds, hasn’t made a start since June 27 due to injury.
The race is tight toward the top, and all players have “+” odds.
Let’s look at the MLB betting sites say and try to make some sense of this.
Favorites for the 2023 NL Cy Young Award
Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks
7/6/23 Pitching Stats: 10-3, 3.15 ERA, 111.1 IP, 120 Ks, 23 Walks
7/20/23 Pitching Stats: 11-4, 3.14 ERA, 123.1 IP, 130 Ks, 26 Walks
7/6/23 Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook (+240)
7/20/23 Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook (+200)
Since we last checked in, Gallen has made two starts and allowed four runs. Three runs came from his most recent start against the Toronto Blue Jays. He also made a one-inning appearance in the All-Star game.
As you can see from the stats, he’s gone 1-1 and kept his ERA under control. The odds for him haven’t moved much despite Kershaw getting taken out of the race, so for him to hold on and win, he’ll need to remain steady like he’s been all season thus far.
Gallen has the win numbers, but he’s not as impressive in the other categories as the players below him at odds.
The value is OK at +200, but he’s a few good starts away from the second player on this list of being supplanted.
Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves
7/6/23 Pitching Stats: 10-2, 3.66 ERA, 98.1 IP, 155 Ks, 33 Walks.
7/20/23 Pitching Stats: 11-3, 3.66 ERA, 110.2 IP, 176 Ks, 34 Walks.
7/6/23 Odds: DraftKings Sportsbook (+700)
7/20/23 Odds: DraftKings Sportsbook (+250)
If you bet on Strider at the beginning of the year, his game log is maddening. He’ll string together several good starts, strike out many batters, and then he has the occasional start where he gets shellacked.
Over his last five starts, he’s allowed two or fewer runs in four of them, but his most recent against the Chicago White Sox was his worst, allowing five earned runs. He has an incredible strikeout rate at 14.3 strikeouts per nine innings.
Over his last five starts, he’s had double-digit strikeouts three times, and his non-double-digit starts were just off at nine of them.
Strider is closing in on Gallen, but he’s got to stop with these sporadic implosions.
The value is good here, thanks to his monstrous strikeout potential.
Blake Snell, San Diego Padres
7/20/23 Pitching Stats: 6-7, 2.71 ERA, 103 IP, 139 Ks, 52 Walks.
7/20/23 Odds: DraftKings Sportsbook (+425)
Sneaking into third place is former Tampa Bay Rays ace, now with the Padres, Blake Snell. Sporting a fantastic 2.71 ERA, Snell has better strikeout numbers than Gallen and ERA, but his win-loss record is abysmal at 6-7.
However, looking at the losses, you’ll find it’s not entirely all his fault. In consecutive order, he allowed the following number of earned runs in his losses: 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 6, 2.
If you add up the number of runs the Padres scored in those games, it’s a measly six runs, with four coming in one game.
Snell is a nice dark horse here, especially if he can string together a few wins for a more attractive resume.
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