What We Learned in College Football: Week 6

What We Learned in College Football: Week 6
© USA Today

We learned why Texas A&M was considered the No. 6 team in the country before the season. The Aggies nearly knocked off top-ranked Alabama and that was a best-bet winner we released last week.

Big College Football Favorites Continue to Win

In Week 6, college football betting favorites of 17.5 or more points went 8-1 straight up (SU) , but just 3-6 against the spread (ATS) and had a 4-5 Over-Under record. 

For the season, the big favorites are 161-10, hitting 94% wins, but the market has them priced correctly with an 86-82-3 ATS record and an 84-83-4 Over-Under record.

The only upset win by a dog of 17.5 or more last week was Texas State defeating Appalachian State 36-24 as 19.5-point home underdogs. Don’t expect Appalachian State to bounce back this week. Teams coming off a SU loss priced as a 17.5 or greater favorite are 39-39 SU, 36-42 ATS for 46% winning bets, including a solid 29-47-2 Over-Under record, good for 62% Under bets. 

So, consider a bet on the Under when Appalachian State takes on Georgia State.

Ranked College Football Teams Struggled in Week 6

Ranked teams dominated their unranked opponents in Week 6, going 14-3 SU, 8-8-1 ATS for 50% winning bets, including a 6-11-1 Over-Under record. There were three matchups in which each team was ranked and the home teams went 1-2 SU, 1-1-1 ATS including a 1-2 Over-Under record.

I am looking at some strong betting opportunities in Week 7 that involve ranked teams that have covered the spread in the first five games of their regular season. 

Best Bet for Week 6 to Bet Now

I detailed the 68% ATS situational betting system in Week 4 when Wyoming went on the road as a 21-point underdog and lost 38-24 to BYU. 

Then in Week 5, Illinois unloaded on Wisconsin 34-10, covering the spread by 15.5 points as 6.5-point road underdogs. 

So, in Week 6 we get another betting opportunity supported by the same betting system when San Jose State takes to the road priced as 7-point favorites against Fresno State.

The betting system is to bet on road teams that have allowed 17 or fewer points in each of their last two games and are taking on a foe that lost their last game by at least 17 points. This has produced a 155-40 SU record for 80% wins and 131-62-2 ATS for 68% winning bets since the start of the 2010 season.

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