UFC 283 Betting Advice and Analysis
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It’s the first major event in the UFC of 2023 as the light heavyweight title goes back on the line following the injury to Jiri Procházka.
The Czech injured his shoulder in the buildup to his scheduled fight with former champion Glover Teixeira and he will now face off with Jamahal Hill for the vacant title.
Ahead of a monumental year for the UFC, here are our picks for the first pay-per-view event of 2023.
Glover Teixeira vs. Jamahal Hill
After losing the belt in a Fight of the Year contender, Teixeira is back in the octagon for another shot at the title at 43 years old and only eight months since that loss.
In what was expected to be an easy win for Jiří Procházka, Teixeira was winning the fight up until the last 30 seconds of the bout when quite incredibly, Procházka locked in a rear-naked choke to win the light heavyweight title and register just his third win via submission from 26 fights.
After that performance and wins against Anthony Smith, Thiago Santos and Jan Błachowicz en route to winning the 205 pounds title, it's surprising to see the Brazilian as such an underdog with the sportsbook.
Hill, however, has been excellent since coming into the UFC and lost only to Paul Craig back in June 2021 during his stay here. He has knocked out rising stars like Jimmy Crute and Johnny Walker to earn consecutive Performance of the Night awards, before a Fight of Night victory over Santos to win his 11 bouts in 13 professional matches and his seventh via TKO/KO.
The method to victory for Hill is pretty simple: go for the knockout. The former champion is now 43, coming off the back of a brutal battle with Procházka and Hill is a knockout artist of a high caliber.
It is a very tough fight to predict, however, but we do feel as if the fight will not go the distance, which is priced at -650.
Jamahal Hill to win by KO/TKO in Rounds 1, 2 or 3 is +150 with FanDuel.
Devison Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno
For a fourth time in three years, two legendary figures in the bantamweight division will meet in the octagon, as Brandon Moreno looks to win back the title from Devison Figueiredo once again.
The first of the three fights between these two ended in a draw, Moreno won the next, and then Figueiredo reclaimed the title almost a year ago to this day. In reality, however, the Brazilian has come out on top in the three fights. Not only has he won the most recent battle, but he was the better fighter in the first fight at UFC 256 but was deducted one point in round 3 because of a groin strike to force the draw.
In the second bout, Moreno was sensational. He outclassed the champion on the feet and picked up his 11th submission win with a rear-naked choke in the third round. However, despite looking good in the third fight, the Mexican was behind Figueiredo in practically all areas of the third fight and the latter deserved to win his title back in another Fight of the Night encounter.
Moreno has been active since that fight last January, beating Kai Kara-France after a magnificent body kick and punches TKO. The current champion hasn’t fought since, but this isn’t enough for us to believe he won’t win this one. The bantamweight king is now 35, however, and the 29-year-old Moreno should be confident.
Both fighters are currently -133 on the moneyline to win. Still, regardless of that fact, we see another Figueiredo victory in this one to conclude one of the UFC’s greatest-ever rivalries.
Deiveson Figueiredo by points is +250 with FanDuel.
Gilbert Burns vs. Neil Magny
Gilbert Burns is searching for another win in his 19th UFC fight following his monumental battle with Khamzat Chimaev. Neil Magny is his next opponent, and for all the close battles on the UFC 283 card, there seems to be a clear winner in this one.
Burns is -430 on the moneyline to beat Magny and the Brazilian has only lost twice in the past four years and won seven other fights in this time. His only defeats have come against the former champion, Kamaru Usman, and the sport's biggest rising star, Chimaev.
What separates Burns from Magny in this fight is his overall superiority across the mixed martial arts board. The former title challenger has six wins via knockout, eight via submission and six via decision while also boasting one of the highest black belt degrees in Brazilian jiu-jitsu across the UFC (3rd degree).
Magny deserves some praise, however, following an excellent submission win over Daniel Rodriguez to earn a Performance of the Night award. Further wins over Geoff Neal and Max Griffin in the past two years deserve credit, too, but Burns is quite simply just the better fighter and should win quite comfortably here.
Gilbert Burns by points is +190 with FanDuel.
Lauren Murphy vs. Jessica Andrade
Two contenders for the women’s flyweight crown meet at UFC 283, with former strawweight champion, Jessica Andrade, meeting with a veteran looking for one more run to the title, Lauren Murphy.
Murphy heads into this one as a huge underdog (+360), and justifiably so. The American — despite losing only once since 2018 and winning six of her last seven — is now 39 and coming up against a woman who has improved leaps and bounds since losing her title battle with Valentina Shevchenko.
Andrade has only lost to defending or former champions in the past eight years, losing to Rose Namajunas, Zhang Weili, Joanna Jędrzejczyk and Shevchenko. Everyone else has been beaten relatively easily by Andrade and she has also finished her last three wins inside the first round after submitting Amanda Lemos and getting a TKO win over Cynthia Calvillo and Katlyn Chookagian.
Murphy is a great fighter, but this feels like Andrade’s time once more to compete for the title.
Jessica Andrade to win by KO/TKO/DQ is +150 with DraftKings.
Paul Craig vs. Johnny Walker
A fight that could no doubt steal the headlines at UFC 283 sees two contenders bidding for the title shot once more.
Paul Craig lost for the first time in six fights after Volkan Oezdemir got a decision win in July and it was the second time in his 22-fight career he had gone the distance. All his other 20 fights have ended in the first three rounds, with his sensational triangle choke against Nikita Krylov last March being the 13th time he’s ended things before the final bell.
After bursting onto the MMA scene with three Performance of the Night wins in his first three UFC fights, Johnny Walker has rapidly fallen out of the title conversation. Four losses in his next six would come after that, but he is back to winning after beating Ion Cuțelaba via a rear-naked choke in round one last September.
The main difference here is how we have a submission guru against a knockout specialist, but the latter has lost four times in his UFC career from nine bouts. Craig, however, has only lost once since June 2019, and it always feels as if he is seconds away from securing another submission.
It’s a tough one to call, but the fight is an incredible -700 not to go the distance. With this in mind, our pick is for Craig to rack up another finish.
Paul Craig by submission is +275 with DraftKings.
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