How Good Are the Mets, Should You Keep Betting on Them?

How Good Are the Mets, Should You Keep Betting on Them?
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Throughout the season, we will give you MLB betting advice each day, throwing in a few quick pitches for prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

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National League

New York Mets at San Diego Padres

9:40 p.m. ET
The New York Mets have the best record in the National League and have a big lead over the Atlanta Braves in the division.

My predictive models are showing signs that the Mets have reached a performance peak and are highly susceptible to regression over the next 10 to 15 games. 

I can see the Mets going 7-8 or thereabouts over the next 15 games on their schedule.
The Padres are second in the NL West behind the L.A. Dodgers and are the top-rated NL Wild Card team. 

They are on a 3-game winning streak and have closed the gap on L.A.

What the Trends and Angles Say

Here is a list of the situational trends and angles that support a wager on the Padres

  • Mets are 21-33, losing 20 units on moneyline, in road games facing a host with a slugging percentage of .400 or lower on the season in games played over the last two seasons.
  • Padres are 14-4, making 11.1 units on the moneyline, taking on exceptional fielding teams averaging 0.5 or fewer errors per game this season.
  • Padres are 11-3, making 9 units on the moneyline, following five or more consecutive road games this season.

I am betting on the Padres at -110 on the moneyline as offered by the BetMGM Sportsbook.

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American League

Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians

7:05 p.m. ET
Despite having one of the lower payrolls, the Guardians have won six of their past eight games. They are starting a seven-game home stand tonight.

The Betting Angle of the Day

The following betting system has produced a 120-63 record betting Over the posted total and 65% winning bets over the last five seasons.

The requirements are:

  • Bet the Over in games lined at 9 and 9.5 runs.
  • The road team is starting a pitcher that allowed no more than one run in his previous start.
  • The road team has just a .300 or lower on-base-percentage spanning their last 15 games.

I am betting he Over 9.5 runs +100 as offered at DraftKings.

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Other Bets I like Tonight

The following list are my best MLB Player Prop Bets:

  • Bet on the Diamondbacks’ Madison Bumgarner Over 4.5 strikeouts at +100 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
  • Bet that Corey Seager of the Texas Rangers will hit a home run at +290 as offered at BetMGM.
  • Bet the Padres’ Blake Snell Over 6.5 strikeouts at -105 as offered at BetMGM.
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