MLB Betting Advice for Games on the Aug. 18 Schedule
Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for a National League and American League game each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.
American League Best Bet
Boston Red Sox -145 at Pittsburgh Pirates +130
7:05 p.m. ET
The Boston Red Sox have won two straight and five of their last six games and are teasing their fans with visions of a late playoff push.
Making the playoffs is not impossible, but highly unlikely, with a 59-59 record and 44 games remaining on the schedule.
However, the four-game deficit can be overcome with seven teams competing for a division crown or a wild card berth and within a few games of one another.
So, get your streaming app fired up, start watching the movie Fever Pitch, and join the hope that only the Red Sox Nation loves.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Red Sox in this matchup.
- The Red Sox are 28-2, making 25 units on the moneyline, when facing an National League allowing 5.0 or more runs per game in the second half of each of the last 25 seasons.
- The Red Sox are 9-0, making 11 units on the moneyline, when facing a National League foe scoring four or fewer runs per game in games played over the past two seasons.
- Pirates starter J.T. Brubaker is 0-11, losing 11 units on the moneyline, when facing a foe that averages seven or fewer runners on base in the second half of each of the last two seasons.
I will bet the Red Sox using the moneyline priced at -150 as offered at BetMGM.
National League Best Bet
New York Mets –120 at Atlanta Braves +110
7:20 p.m. ET
The Braves won the first two games, but the Mets bounced back to win the series' third game.
Atlanta got to Mets starter Max Scherzer for four earned runs, the most he has allowed since Sept. 20.
The Braves are batting .281 and scoring 6.1 runs per game over their last seven games.
Situational Trends and Angles
Let’s look at how the trends and angles play in this game.
- The Braves are 15-10 at home in the last game of a divisional series over the past three seasons.
- The Braves are 8-1 at home in the last game of a divisional series when facing a starter with an ERA of 2.50 or lower in the last five seasons. Mets starter Jacob DeGrom has a 1.62 ERA.
- The Braves are 7-1 in the last game of a series when priced as an underdog and Max Fried has been the starter since 2019.
I will bet the Braves +111 on the moneyline as offered at FanDuel.
Here are some player prop bets to consider.
- Bet the Red Sox’ Tommy Phan to get a hit -200 at FanDuel.
- Bet the Dodgers’ James Outman to hit a home run +750 at DraftKings.
- Bet the Braves’ Austin Riley to have 2+ hits +360 at FanDuel.
I have gone 17-13 on our last 35 prop bets with five no plays making $179 per $20 pizza-money wager.
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