Major League Baseball Betting Analysis and Predictions: National League East

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Major League Baseball Betting Analysis and Predictions: National League East
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Major League Baseball will begin on April 7. To get you ready for the season, we’re going to take a look at each division with World Series odds and predictions.

Today, we break down the National League East.

World Series Odds

  • New York Mets, +1000
  • Atlanta Braves, +1200
  • Philadelphia Phillies, +3000
  • Miami Marlins, +6600
  • Washington Nationals, +10000

Why The Phillies Are an Interesting Bet

The Phillies have had the largest MLB betting interest among the five teams in the NL East and that trend will continue into the start of the season.

Last year, they went 82-80 with the $100 bettor losing $477 for a -2.9% return on investment for the 162 games. They were two games over .500, but 6.5 games behind the division-wining Braves.

The Phillies were a money-losing 76-86 against the Run Line, losing $1,730 for a -10.3% return on investment.

The Phillies had money to spend this offseason and they added 29-year-old and left fielder Kyle Schwarber and 30-year-old designated hitter Nick Castellanos, which will add a significant amount of offensive production.

Right-fielder and reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper will be protected in the lineup and his production will be far better than last season. The addition of these two players will give the Phillies an outfield (if Castellanos is not the DH) who are ranked in the Top 10 in OPS (on-base + slugging percentage).

The Phillies Citizen’s Bank Park is a hitter-friendly venue and there will more runs scored, and more home runs hit than last season.

Schwarber batted .266 with 32 home runs last season and has hit 153 career homers. I expect him to hit 35 or more this season.

Castellanos was the Cincinnati Reds’ best offensive player, hitting .309. Phillies manager Joe Girardi will experiment with the lineup and could have Harper batting second followed by Castellanos and Schwarber.

Opposing pitchers will not be able to just work around Harper this season and will be forced to pitch to him with runners on base and in scoring position, even if first base is open. If this lineup remains healthy, they have the potential to be the highest-scoring offense in the NL.

Castellanos’ average was a career-best and he hit 34 home runs with 100 RBI. Harper is coming off an MVP season batting .309 with 35 home runs, 101 runs scored, but just 84 runs batted in. Harper could bat .325 or better with 40+ home runs, 100+ runs scored, and 100+ RBI with Schwarber and Castellanos batting behind him.

I also see both of those players posting career-bests in home runs, runs scored, and runs batted in this season.

The three-headed Phillies monster could combine for 110+ home runs, 330+ runs scored, and 300+ runs batted in, which makes me very bullish on them to win the NL East.

The Phillies are priced at +400 to win the NL East and I have gone to the window making this bet at the BetMGM Sportsbook.

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John Ryan

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