MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 1

MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 1
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Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under or moneyline bets on other games.

 

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National League Best Bet

Colorado Rockies +350 at Atlanta Braves -420

7:20 p.m. ET

The Braves are 80-51, averaging a -161 favorite resulting in a 5% return on investment (ROI). They are 43-25 in home games, averaging a -160 favorite resulting in a 3.9% ROI.

The Rockies play better at their mile-high home of Coors Field than on the road where they have posted a 20-43 record, averaging a +171-underdog resulting in a -15% ROI. 

In 68 home games, the Rockies have posted a 36-32 record, averaging a +115-underdog bet that has made a solid 12.5% ROI on the season. 

So, it is not surprising that the Rockies are +300 on the moneyline facing the reigning World Series champion Braves.

Since 2004, underdogs priced at +350 and higher on the moneyline have gone 4-17 for 19% winning bets. They are averaging a +374 wager, resulting in an –8% ROI. 

These results do not imply Atlanta has already won this game, given the modest loss on the moneyline, despite these dogs winning just 4 of 21 of these games. 

I recommend avoiding any thoughts of betting an MLB favorite of -250 or higher and it is one of my personal “Don’t Do” betting rules. 

Check out this article and this video in which I feature a betting system that saw us win on the Washington Nationals in back-to-back nights over the San Diego Padres.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on Colorado in this matchup.

  • Rockies starter Chad Kuhl is 17-9, making 15 units on the moneyline, when facing a team that is batting .250 or lower in starts made in the second half of the season.
  • The Rockies are 30-35, making 11 units on the moneyline after losing four or five of their last six games this season.
  • Road underdogs of 250 and higher on the moneyline are 16-39, but by averaging a +279 wager, have produced a solid 11% ROI in games played after the all-star break in the past three seasons.

I am betting the Rockies on the moneyline at +330, as offered at BetRivers.

 

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American League Best Bet

Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox

2:20 p.m. ET

The White Sox enter September five games behind the Cleveland Guardians and 3 1/2 games behind the Minnesota Twins. 

They have had too many injuries to overcome and now have manager Tony LaRussa, 77, hospitalized as he undergoes medical testing in Arizona.

Chicago ended a five-game losing skid with a 4-2 win over the Kansas City Royals Wednesday and will try to win its first series in nearly three weeks.

The following situational betting angle supports a +1.5-run line wager on the Royals tonight.

  • The White Sox are 23-14, making 5.5 units on the moneyline, in home games after losing four or five of their last six games in the past three seasons.
  • Teams that have won three or fewer of their last 10 games, priced as a home favorite between -175 and -225, have earned a 51-15 record, resulting in a 24.5% ROI over the past three seasons.

I am going to the window betting the CWS on the –1.5 run line -115 as offered at BetMGM.

 

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Quick Pitches

Here are some prop bets to consider on today’s schedule.

  • Bet the Braves’ William Contreras to get 2+ hits +310 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the White Sox to score first -115 at BetMGM.
  • Bet ‘yes’ that there will be a score in the first inning of the A’s vs. Nationals -110 at BetMGM.
  • Bet the Brewers’ Brandon Woodruff to record 10+ strikeouts +830 at FanDuel.

In the last 64 prop bet picks, I have a 32-32 record, making $220 per $20 pizza-money wager or $1,100 per $100 wager. The results over the past three months have produced a 45% ROI and compare quite well to an S&P 500 stock index that is down over 15% for the year.

 

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