NBA Draft 2023 Betting Preview: Picks, Tips, Props to Consider
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It’s been a foregone conclusion Victor Wembenyama will go No. 1 overall to the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Draft. DraftKings Sportsbooks lists Wembenyama as a -20000 favorite to go first, which is an implied probability of 99.5%.
If you want to bet $2,000 to make $10, feel free to do so. But after Wembenyama the draft should get more interesting. At No. 2, the favorites are Brandon Miller and Scoot Henderson, who have regularly seen their odds fluctuate to go second.
Here is an overview of some NBA betting picks for Thursday’s draft.
NBA Draft Prop: Second Overall Pick
Miller has recently become the favorite to go No. 2, with DraftKings now posting the Alabama forward at -400 to be selected second.
One reason may be fit. Miller could slide into the Charlotte Hornets lineup at a forward spot at a position of need, while there could be some overlap pairing Hendreson with LaMelo Ball in the backcourt.
Still, if I was going to wager on this prop bet, I would take Henderson at +200.
Not all late odd movement turns out to be true. Remember last year how it seemed Jabari Smith was a lock to go No. 1 to the Orlando Magic, only for Paolo Banchero to be the top pick in the 2022 NBA draft?
It feels like something similar could happen at this spot. Henderson is considered an elite talent who could be a No. 1 pick in other drafts if not for Wembenyama.
Whether it’s in the ball-screen actions or in transition, Henderson’s athleticism and quickness are unparalleled for someone his age (19).
After NBA Draft Top Three, There are Unknowns
The draft could get chaotic after Wembenyama, Henderson and Miller are drafted.
Houston has the fourth pick, and DraftKings favors Amen Thompson to go to the Rockets at No. 4 at -220.
But after that, none of the other Top 10 NBA draft pick betting props have a favorite at minus odds, implying numerous people have a chance to go at each of the spots inside the Top 10.
Over-Under Props
In addition to betting on individual draft selections, sportsbooks also list Over-Under props for where a player will be drafted.
One player worth targeting in this market is Houston’s Jarace Walker, whose Over-Under is at 6.5. The under is at +100, and if he’s taken within the first six picks, your bet would be graded a winner.
Walker could be targeted by the Detroit Pistons at No. 5. At 6-feet-7 with a 7-3 wingspan, Walker is an athletic forward with the size and length to be an impactful help defender in the league.
His size allows him to switch onto perimeter players while holding his own inside against other bigs. Paired with Jalen Duren, the Pistons would have a formidable defensive frontcourt.
His athletic traits could make him a viable pick for the Pistons at No. 5, making the under 6.5 draft prop worth consideration.
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