Monday Night Football: Can Washington's Defense Stand Up to Philadelphia?

Monday Night Football: Can Washington's Defense Stand Up to Philadelphia?
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Here are our NFL betting picks for Monday Night Football. We'll start with our prop bets, then pick the game.

Prop Bets 

For the season, player prop bets are 51-36 for 59% winning bets, making $967 per $50 bet. 

Sportsbook Odds Prop Bet
Caesars -104 Eagles’ Jalen Hurts Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
BetMGM -110 Commanders’ Taylor Heinicke Over 15.5 rushing yards
BetMGM +140 Commanders’ Joey Slye Over 1.5 made field goals
BetMGM +105 Eagles’ Jake Elloitt Over 2.5 made extra points
FanDuel +115 Eagles’ A.J. Brown to score a touchdown
Unibet +5500 Commanders’ Jahan Dotson to score 2+ touchdowns

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles 

Monday, 8:20 p.m. ET, ESPN 

 Line: Eagles -10.5 | Total: 43.5 points 

I am betting on the Eagles -10.5 points as offered at BetMGM. 

The Eagles defeated the Commanders 24-8 in Week 3 and covered the spread as 5.5-point road favorites. The Eagles gained 72 rushing yards in that game marking the only time they have not exceeded 100 rushing yards in a game this season. 

Can that kind of performance by the Commanders' defense happen tonight? Our models show that teams that gained fewer than 75 rushing yards in a win over a divisional foe are then 10-1 straight-up and 8-3 against the spread (73%) in the rematch.  

Philadelphia is second only to the Baltimore Ravens in offensive efficiency as measured by the yards-per-point ratio. The Eagles sport a 13.34 yards per point ratio and the Commanders have posted the 24th-best ratio in the NFL at 20.15. 

The defensive version of the yards-per-point ratio measures how many yards an opponent needs to gain to put up one point on the scoreboard. The Eagles' defense ranks eighth with a 21.26 ratio and the Commanders rank 13th with an 18.97 ratio. So, the Eagles have significant advantages on both sides of the ball based on this important metric. 

The Eagles will be the sixth team since 1950 to play nine consecutive games when it committed no more than a single turnover in any game. They committed just three turnovers through eight games while the Commanders forced only seven turnovers (three interceptions). 

The Eagles lead the NFL with a -15 turnover margin with the defense forcing 18 opponent turnovers. The team with the second-best turnover margin is the Minnesota Vikings at -8 net turnovers. The Commanders rank 26th, committing four more turnovers than they have forced on the season. Advantage Eagles. 

 Situational Trends and Angles 

  • Commanders' coach Ron Rivera is 0-9 against the spread coming off a loss by three or fewer points for his career.
  • The Commanders are 5-13 SU (28%) and 6-12 ATS (33%) when revenging a same-season loss by 13 or more points
  • Undefeated teams, like the Eagles, have a minimum of 5.75 yards-per-point advantage when on offense over their opponent, the total is between 40 and 45 points, game occurring in weeks 8 through 12 are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS (75%).
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